Decades ago, back when I was young and needed the work, this piece was all about the picks against the spread. As time went on, I dabbled in a few point totals here and there, and then a funny thing happened.
The point total picks rocked, and the ATS selections were just so-so.
I can only see what I can see. Last week, I saw point totals, and a segment of the population got mad. They wanted picks against the spread, not point totals. And what happened?
It was a 6-4 week. One loss was on the Iowa-Washington under, which Iowa took care of all by itself. The other three misfires were Texas -7.5, Oregon -11.5, and Indiana -7.5. Yeah, the three big against-the-spread calls missed, while the point totals went 6-1.
Even so – fine. I hear you. The headline says Against The Spread, so this week, I’m giving you the ten best picks against the spread … let’s have some fun. (And if this doesn’t crush, yeah, the point totals are coming back, just maybe not as much.)
Results So Far: 42-33
– Week 7 Schedule & Predictions
– CFN Week 7 Expert Picks
10. Kentucky at Oklahoma
Line: Oklahoma -6.5
ATS Pick: Kentucky
– Game Preview and Prediction
Now, we’re not doing point totals this week, but if we were, this feels like a very low-scoring game with an Oklahoma offense that hasn’t hit 300 yards of total offense in any game except against UTEP. The Sooners manufactured points in odd ways to beat Texas, and there’s one problem with trying to do that against Kentucky – the Wildcats don’t turn the ball over.
Oklahoma has yet to beat a Power Four team by more than three, and while I think it’ll win, this should be a fight.
9. Florida State at Miami
Line: Miami -21.5
ATS Pick: Miami
– Game Preview and Prediction
Florida State has pulled a few games out of its … ear. It walloped Virginia by 31 and scored 36 on Alabama to lose by 14.
The Seminoles ran for a season-high 281 yards against Virginia, pushing the mark to 3-0 when averaging 5.6 yards. It’s also 0-3 when averaging 4.4 yards per carry or worse.
Florida State, I’d like to introduce you to the No. 1 run defense in America that has allowed 213 yards and one touchdown in five games, giving up 1.8 yards per carry. In two road games, the Seminoles got hit by Louisville for 44 points and gave up 50 to Alabama.
8. Northwestern at Michigan State
Line: Northwestern -7.5
ATS Pick: Northwestern
– Game Preview and Prediction
This Pains Me: Part 1.
I like this Michigan State team. It doesn’t have the personnel, but Pat Fitzgerald’s team busts it on each and every play. And then there’s the X-factor issue – it’s Pat Fitzgerald vs. Northwestern. There’s no way he’s not throwing everything at the wall to get this one.
The Spartans are giving it the old college try, but they’re just too banged up. They were getting rolled by Illinois until a crazy comeback got them to overtime in a tough 38-37 loss.
Wisconsin ran over MSU and won by 28, Nebraska pulled away and won by 18, and Notre Dame slogged through the rain to win by 17. Northwestern will be clinical about this, as it runs well enough to pull away late.
7. UNLV at Air Force
Line: Air Force -1.5
ATS Pick: UNLV
Running game, running game, running game. UNLV is 4-0 when running for 170 yards or more, and 0-2 when it doesn’t. Those two losses were also the only two times when the Rebels allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry and 176 yards.
Air Force will run because that’s what it does, but it’s been held to under 4.5 yards per carry twice – once was the loss to North Dakota State. The run defense has been good, but it won’t stuff UNLV enough to pull this off.
6. Toledo at Eastern Michigan
Line: Toledo -6.5
ATS Pick: Toledo
The MAC went full MAC last week as Buffalo pulled off one of the biggest stunners of the season with a 23-8 win over Toledo. How did that happen? Three UB takeaways and a whopper of a defensive performance. That was an outlier for the Rockets.
The Toledo offense that struggled so much bounces back large. It’s 4-0 when coming up with over 305 yards of total offense, 0-2 when it doesn’t. Sacramento State and Lindenwood are the only two teams that didn’t hit well over 300 yards on the Eastern Michigan defense.
5. Ohio State at Indiana
Line: Ohio State -3.5
ATS Pick: Ohio State
– Game Preview and Prediction
Don’t Think, Just Pick: Part 1
I know better than to doubt Curt Cignetti, but Indiana just isn’t the same team as last year’s version. The tough wins over Northwestern and Nebraska seemed to be more about the Hoosiers taking a wee step back than the Wildcats and Huskers playing great. There’s something unsettling about this, but …
It’s just another day at the Big Ten office for Ohio State, and the biggest home game ever for Indiana. Don’t think, just pick …
4. Notre Dame at BYU
Line: Notre Dame -10.5
ATS Pick: Notre Dame
– Game Preview and Prediction
Don’t Think, Just Pick: Part 2, combined with Never, Ever, EVER Screw With a Streak.
Notre Dame has won 16 games in a row by double-digits, and now those wins this year over Wisconsin and Purdue are starting to look far stronger than they seemed at the time.
All offseason, I had this circled as Notre Dame’s only loss – strange things happen in Provo – but the BYU wins over TCU and Iowa State were less than impressive.
I’ll admit this should be around 9 or 10 on this list instead of 4, but … Don’t Think, Just Pick. And now back to …
3. Wisconsin at UCLA
Line: UCLA -2.5
ATS Pick: UCLA
– Game Preview and Prediction
This Pains Me: Part 2.
As a Wisconsin man, the 1994 and 1998 Rose Bowls over UCLA are on the first page of the sports fan resume. But I’m a professional, and UCLA has been my cause célèbre all offseason as I vowed to will this team into the new Indiana.
(In no way did I see that coming, but I screamed to anyone and everyone before the 2024 season that Curt Cignetti was about to make the Hoosiers a thing, and this year it’s Bob Chesney and UCLA.)
Yeah, like the Cignetti schtick, the fantastic Chesney act with the sunglasses, and always knowing where the camera is, might be a bit performative, but I don’t care. I’m in.
This team bashes like the Wisconsin teams of 20 years ago used to do. The defense needed work, and Chesney and his staff fixed the glitch right away. The team is playing really, really smart.
The line is low because UCLA doesn’t have starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava, but as much as I might want the Badgers to win. beating Michigan State, Eastern Michigan, Western Illinois, and needing a late comeback at Penn State isn’t enough. This Bruin team is built different.
2. Northern Illinois at Wyoming
Line: Wyoming -7.5
ATS Pick: Wyoming
If this doesn’t work, tip your cap, short memory, on to the next play.
Northern Illinois is trying so hard, but it’s in a horrible situation with the coaching staff unable to do much of anything this offseason, and a program in flux as it tries to get moving in its new Mountain West home. But it’s 0-5 for a reason, and it hasn’t been close against anyone but Illinois State in a 28-24 loss to the FCS team.
Wyoming is challenged in so many ways – including scoring – but at home it beat Hawaii by 17 and Northern Colorado by eight. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is dead last in the nation in third-down stops, punting, scoring, and red-zone offense.
1. Ohio at Sacramento State
Line: Ohio -15
ATS Pick: Ohio
Don’t think, just pick … Never, Ever, EVER Screw With a Streak … If this doesn’t work, tip your cap, short memory, on to the next play … wrap it all into a ball and use it here.
Sacramento State is just getting this plane off the ground as it begins life in the FBS. It wasn’t bad in the 28-17 loss at Eastern Michigan to start the season, and it blasted Mississippi Valley State, but reality sat down for breakfast over the last four games.
Fresno State won by 45. North Dakota State won by 21, UMass by 29, and Bowling Green by 28. Ohio has been a tad shaky, though, needing everything in the bag to get by Jacksonville State in four overtimes, and it struggled in a 13-10 win over Kent State two weeks ago. But until Sac State can prove it can hang around again …
(Again, this had all better work, or the point totals make their return.)
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.