House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) needs Latino voters to stick with Republicans as they did in 2024. But new polling shows they're drifting back toward Democrats at levels not seen in years.
Why it matters: Latino voters souring on President Trump has been part of the mood music of the president's second term. Democrats hope this helps them replicate the landslide from Trump's first midterm in 2018.
The big picture: Democrats have their widest lead of the year against Republicans, 57% to 31%, on the generic congressional ballot, according to new polling from Equis Research.
- In battleground districts, Democrats lead 62%–38% among likely Latino voters in two-way races, ahead of the party's 2022 level of 57%.
- That's well above the 49% of Latinos who voted Democratic in 2024, but below the 67% who backed Democrats in 2018, according to Equis, a leading authority on Latino voting behavior.
Zoom in: Republicans were convinced that Trump's undeniable gains in 2024 represented the beginnings of a real realignment, but poll after poll this year has indicated that Latino voters haven't found a permanent home in the GOP.
- In Florida, GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar has addressed Trump directly in a campaign ad about his immigration crackdown.
- The Equis survey, conducted Sept. 23–Oct. 2, provides fresh evidence of Trump's declining support among Latino voters.
- Trump's approval rating stands at just 30%, compared with 65% disapproval. That's a 35-point deficit — and a new low in Equis surveys.
Between the lines: Economic concerns — and rising gas prices — are driving much of the dissatisfaction, particularly the cost of living.
- 76% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living, which 52% identify as their top issue.
- 54% trust Democrats more on the economy, compared with 33% who trust Republicans.
- That gives Democrats a 21-point advantage on the economy, up from just 7 points in February.
The bottom line: Latino voters helped put Trump back in the White House. The Equis survey is the latest indication they could help Democrats take back Congress.
Note: The Equis survey was conducted Sept. 23–Oct. 2 via phone and text-to-web with 1,800 registered voters who identify as Hispanic or Latino nationally.
- The sample was weighted to match the composition of registered voters modeled as Latino by state, gender, age, education, vote history, voter registration date, VCH score and 2024 vote recall.