PETALING JAYA: Growing Dayak discontent and potential changes to its candidate line-up could cost Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) seats in the coming state election, although the ruling coalition is still expected to retain its two-thirds majority, said a political analyst.
Datuk Dr Jayum Anak Jawan said any GPS losses would most likely come from Dayak-majority or Chinese-majority constituencies, while Malay-Melanau voters were unlikely to abandon Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB).
The Academy of Sciences Malaysia fellow said discontent among Dayak voters over issues widely discussed on social media could translate into electoral setbacks for GPS.
“Strong Dayak sentiment has been building up over many issues that have been the subject of much discussion on social media, and could spill over into the next state election,” he told theSun.
Jayum said Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak could gain momentum as nomination day approached, potentially putting several Dayak seats at risk.
He said the outcome would depend partly on how Dayak opposition parties positioned themselves for the election, adding that some constituencies could see unexpected opposition victories.
Candidate selection could also expose vulnerabilities within GPS, particularly if long-serving incumbents were dropped or overlooked, he said.
“There are old-timers on the Pesaka side of PBB, some of whom are said to have reached the end of their agreed terms,” he said.
Within Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS), members aligned with the faction that lost in the party’s recent internal elections could also be left out of the candidate line-up.
“Informed party sources said that these members would not be renominated and that this might create problems for the party,” he said.
Despite those risks, Jayum said GPS remained well placed to retain its two-thirds majority, with the opposition yet to present compelling alternatives to voters.
“Generally, most observers expect GPS to easily retain its two-thirds majority. The ruling party has an advantage because the opposition has so far failed to offer new issues and strategies,” he said.
On the Chinese vote, Jayum said Sarawak United Peoples’ Party (SUPP) was unlikely to lose its standing as the community’s preferred party, although the Democratic Action Party (DAP) could make gains in urban Chinese-majority constituencies.
He attributed SUPP’s resilience to its president, Datuk Amar Dr Sim Kui Hian, who had gradually rebuilt Chinese support for the party over the past decade.
“DAP might win some urban seats with Chinese majorities, but the number would not be enough to dent SUPP’s position as the choice for the Chinese community,” he said.
However, SUPP also faces competition from fellow GPS component Progressive Democratic Party (PDP), which Jayum said was making inroads into its traditional territory.
He cited the previous state election, when PDP president Datuk Seri Tiong King Sing contested Dudong, a seat traditionally associated with SUPP.
“Now that its former assemblyman for Bawang Assan is with PDP, SUPP and PDP are expected to compete to represent the area within GPS,” he said.
GPS currently holds 80 of the 82 seats in the Sarawak state assembly. PBB has 47 seats, SUPP 13, PRS 11 and PDP nine, while DAP holds the remaining two.