As of Friday morning, October 16, the Institute of Geosciences had recorded 746 aftershocks from the magnitude 7.5 earthquake that struck Panama on October 9. How much longer will they continue? What explains the changes in water color and the reported coastal disturbances in the affected areas? In this interview, Néstor Luque, director of the Institute of Geosciences at the University of Panama, explains what is known about the evolution of the earthquake, what research is pending, and what evidence scientists are seeking. Luque also outlines the limitations of the Institute, which plans to double its investment budget from $150,000 to $300,000, build booths to house already acquired equipment, and expand the seismic monitoring network to move towards an early warning system.
How Long will the Aftershocks from the October 9 Earthquake Continue?
According to theory and historical data, aftershocks from an earthquake of this magnitude can last between one and two months. It was a magnitude 7.5 event, strong and very shallow, located by us at a depth of less than 10 kilometers. The energy released in the rupture continues to cause the tectonic blocks to realign. Our records indicate that the aftershocks are gradually decreasing in magnitude.
Could the Earthquakes in Other Rgions of the Country be Related to this Event?
There are other fault lines in Chiriquí and Bocas del Toro. There is no evidence that this earthquake generated or influenced a fault located there. The earthquakes near the aftershock area are related to the main event. Those occurring farther away correspond to other fault systems. The movements we have felt in Panama City are indeed a product of the aftershocks in the central zone.
What Historical Record Exists of Major Earthquakes in Azuero-Soná? Do Earthquakes Occur Approximately Every 100 Years?
An earthquake occurred in that area in 1913, estimated to have been between magnitude 6.6 and 6.9. Some researchers, after re-evaluating historical data, suggest it may have been around magnitude 7. There are also accounts from chroniclers of a very strong tremor during the Spanish colonial period in the 16th century. Based on these accounts, it is estimated that it may have been magnitude 7. The events point to the same area, the Azuero-Soná region, where the fault system is located.
But we cannot categorically say that an earthquake of this magnitude occurs there every 100 years. We have insufficient data to establish that recurrence with certainty. From 1913 to the present, 113 years have passed. This indicates that the fault is accumulating energy, but with only two reference points, I cannot confirm that it has a 100-year cycle. Specialists are seeking funding to come and conduct paleoseismological studies and measure the faults to verify the recurrence of these movements.
What Could Explain why the Sea Seems to have Receded on Some Coasts, Leaving Rocks Exposed?
When these large blocks shift, changes occur in what is known as geomorphology. The shape of the surface changes. There are several possibilities. There can be coastal subsidence or coastal uplift. In this type of fault, which is a strike-slip or lateral fault, one block of the Earth moves horizontally relative to the other. However, this doesn’t preclude the possibility that, during the horizontal movement, one block may shift slightly relative to the other. It’s relative. If I’m on the block that fell, I say the other one rose. If I’m on the block that’s on top, I say the other one sank. Movement is relative; it depends on where you stand. Specialists working in the field of geomorphology will analyze the evidence of these displacements, accompanied by researchers from Venezuela.
What does the Institute of Geosciences need to Strengthen its Research?
We were aiming for $150,000 for investment, but I’ve always said that’s not enough. I’m proposing that I need double that, $300,000, because it involves investment in technological equipment. Seismometers and accelerometers have improved, and we need to upgrade the equipment. Everything is already being processed. Right now we need a vehicle and to build seismic shelters because some of the existing ones are in disrepair. There are about 10 shelters, small buildings where the instruments are housed.
How many Instruments does Panama need to Improve Seismic Monitoring and have an Early Warning System?
For research and for the monitoring network to function, we need to exceed 50 instruments and reach approximately 150, to give an initial figure. For an early warning system, we estimated around 700 instruments distributed throughout the country to achieve broad coverage. The sensors will transmit data to a processing server. For early warning, we need another system, computer equipment, and a much faster communication server. The system we have now can detect and locate an event in 10, 15, or 20 seconds. For early warning, it needs to do so in three to five seconds. After five seconds, it must be certain that the event is significant and send a message that reaches cell phones, triggers a siren, or is broadcast on radio or television.
When might the System be Ready and what Should the Population Do?
In principle, I should have it ready within the next few weeks. But when that message and the alerts arrive, there needs to be education. People need to know what to do. Before that, there will be drills and a system fine-tuning process. If I’m in a tall building, for example, I won’t have time to go down the stairs. I’ll need to know when to take cover under a sturdy table or take whatever safety precautions are appropriate for my location.
How can Changes in the Color of the Water, Including Shades of Gray, be Explained?
At that point we would be talking about geochemistry… Since this friction occurred due to the movement of the faults and the rupture reached the surface, the shallowest groundwater may have come into contact with the friction material of those rocks. The subsoil is composed of different minerals and rocks. It has rained, the water mixes, and it may come into contact with those minerals. That’s one possible explanation. I don’t want to speculate… We would have to chemically analyze the water to find out what’s causing the color change.
On Cañas Island, Residents Claim the Island has Split in Two. What Evidence Would Confirm This?
Geologists need to be sent to examine the geological evidence and determine if there was fracturing or movement of a fault. On the surface, people can see a fracture, a piece of land separated from the other, and a gap that formed. mIf that evidence extends from one end of the island to the other, it would be evidence that the fault we see on the surface continues, crosses the island, and reaches the sea.
Seven days ago at this time, it started shaking. I started recording around 10-15 eternal seconds later. A video that lasted almost 2 minutes. I swore it was over. It was still just beginning. For more than 35 MINUTES. You read that right, MINUTES—the ground didn’t stop. View on X below:
Hace 7 días a esta hora, empezó a temblar.
— Mrs. Ginie (@MrsGinie) October 16, 2026
Yo empecé a grabar alrededor de 10-15 eternos segundos después. Un video que duró casi 2 minutos.
Juraba que estaba pasando. Aún empezaba. En más de 35 MINUTOS. Leyeron bien MINUTOS, la tierra no dejó de vibrar poco o mucho, en Tonosí. pic.twitter.com/1O1UCq9t9F
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