BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Flávio Bolsonaro vs Lula: what happens next
First-round results, how the runoff works, the key dates and who backs whom, in one guide.
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, holds a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —What happened On Monday 12 October, disinformation staff at the electoral court found no new false posts in the pro-Lula WhatsApp channel ‘Exército do Lula’.
- —The catch The same report warned of coordinated, centralised sharing, polarising language and September messages deleted from 7 October onwards.
- —The US link The channel runs on WhatsApp, owned by California-based Meta, which has to carry out the Brazilian court’s orders on the channel.
- —Still open The full court has not ruled on whether the channel, with more than 3 million subscribers, stays online.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 87.4% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (13 October, 2:46 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 87% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 13 October, 2:40 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Staff at Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court found no new fake news in a Lula channel on WhatsApp that Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign wanted shut down. Their report, made public on Monday 12 October, still warned of coordinated mass messaging before the 25 October runoff.
The fight matters beyond Brazil because it plays out on WhatsApp, owned by Meta of Menlo Park, California. Brazilian judges can order US platforms to close channels within hours.
What the Court’s Disinformation Unit Found
The report came from the court’s Special Advisory Unit for Combating Disinformation, which tracks false election content. Court president Kassio Nunes Marques ordered it after two clashing rulings on Sunday, Brazilian news sites g1 and Metrópoles report.
The staff reviewed posts in the Lula channel from 2 to 11 October. They found no new posts repeating the content already examined in the case, though they did not transcribe videos because of the urgency.
The unit’s head, Frederico Alvim, still listed risks: wide reach, heavy forwarding and coordinated instructions telling followers to spread content.
The report also noted that part of the channel’s September messages were deleted from 7 October onwards. That makes the channel’s history hard to rebuild, g1 reports.
How the Lula Channel Became a Court Fight
The channel, ‘Exército do Lula’ (Lula’s Army), sends audio, videos and campaign instructions to supporters. It is run by André Janones, a federal congressman for Minas Gerais who was re-elected on 4 October.
Janones belongs to Rede, a small environmentalist party allied with Lula and founded by Marina Silva.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign asked the court to take the Lula channel down, arguing that it spread false stories about him. Nunes Marques then suspended it, a decision Lula called ‘absurd’ on Sunday 11 October.
On the same Sunday, the court’s inspector general, Justice Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, suspended that order and restored the channel. His provisional ruling bars the channel from repeating content already judged false and leaves the final word to the full bench.
Who Is Who in the Dispute
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is Brazil’s president and seeks a fourth term for the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), which he co-founded. Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL) and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Kassio Nunes Marques presides over the electoral court, which runs and polices Brazil’s elections. He was appointed to the Supreme Court in 2020 by Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula said on Monday that the court’s president ‘cannot take sides’.
After the report, Flávio’s campaign said the channel deletes messages systematically and uses links to dodge the court’s controls. It promised to send the court new evidence.
What It Means for You
For foreigners who follow Brazil, the case shows how much of this runoff is fought on messaging apps and in court. Judges have ordered posts or ads removed from both campaigns several times since the first round on 4 October.
For investors and tech firms, the question is how hard Brazilian courts will push US platforms such as WhatsApp before the vote.
What Is Not Known
The full court has not set a date to rule on the Lula channel. Metrópoles reports that the case awaits Nunes Marques putting it on the agenda, and it is not known whether that happens before 25 October.
Nunes Marques also called both campaign teams to a meeting, Metrópoles reported. It was set for Tuesday 13 October at 3:30 p.m. Brasília time (2:30 p.m. ET).
It is not known when Flávio’s campaign will file its promised new evidence with the court.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 87.4% chance of winning, against 12.5% for Lula (13 October, 2:46 a.m. ET). More than US$180 million has been bet on the contract so far.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.4% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 13%
As of 13 October, 2:40 am ET (07:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Lula channel on WhatsApp?
The Lula channel is a WhatsApp channel called ‘Exército do Lula’ (Lula’s Army), run by congressman André Janones. It sends audio, video and campaign instructions to more than 3 million subscribers who back President Lula.
Did Brazil’s electoral court clear the channel?
Not finally. Court staff found no new false posts in the Lula channel between 2 and 11 October. They did warn of coordinated mass sharing. The full court still has to rule on whether the channel stays online.
Why does a Brazilian court decide what happens on WhatsApp?
Brazilian law lets the electoral court order false or illegal campaign content removed. Platforms such as WhatsApp, owned by Meta of California, must comply in Brazil or face penalties.
Sources: g1, 12 October 2026; Metrópoles, 13 October 2026; g1 (Lula on the court president), 12 October 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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