Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's son Flávio Bolsonaro secured the most votes against his primary rival, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the national elections held on October 4. Bolsonaro is also slightly ahead of Lula in the October 25 presidential runoff, a Quaest poll showed, as reported by Reuters.
Leftist Lula, 80, is bidding for his fourth term in office amid indications that voters in Latin America are marking a shift towards right wing politics. This was effectively seen in the latest elections Colombia, Peru and Chile where conservative leaders, with the backing of US President Donald Trump secured major victories.
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Trump has openly backed Flávio Bolsonaro, aligning himself with the former President's son as he seeks to strengthen influence across Latin America.
A right-wing shift is underway
The presidential runoff is a major opportunity for the politically and economically right in South America to cement their power. Bolsonaro is also likely to bring the continent's largest economy closer to regional powers such as Argentina, Colombia and Chile, while deepening ties with the US, where has revived the Monroe Doctrine as part of his push to expand Washington’s influence across the Western Hemisphere.
Argentina under President Javier Milei offers one example of a government that has sought closer ideological and strategic alignment with the United States. Milei has backed Trump's return to a more assertive interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine and has prioritised ties with the US over traditional regional consensus-building. His approach has also strained relations with some regional partners and reduced Argentina's engagement with multilateral forums.
Chile and Colombia provide further examples of the region's changing political landscape. Chilean President José Antonio Kast has signalled a closer strategic relationship with Washington, although his government has also acknowledged China's importance as a trade partner. In Colombia, President Abelardo de la Espriella has pledged to restore closer security ties with the US, including cooperation on counter-narcotics operations, intelligence and defence equipment. The two countries illustrate how governments can move closer to Washington while still weighing their economic and strategic interests.
Peru has also moved to strengthen its security partnership with Washington under President Keiko Fujimori, joining Trump's Shield of the Americas initiative against transnational organised crime in September. Yet China's position as a major trade partner and its investments in strategic infrastructure, including the Chancay port, complicate any effort to shift decisively away from Beijing. These competing interests highlight the limits of Washington's influence, even as several Latin American governments adopt foreign-policy agendas more closely aligned with the Trump administration.
What are the primary issues in the Brazil elections
Lula, as he is widely known by his supporters, is a leftist stalwart who has worked intensively to reduce economic inequality in Brazil and has pointed to his efforts to lift millions of people out of poverty. He also introduced a government program to directly give money to low-income families. Lula's bid is built around the legacy of three previous terms but it has been widely reported that some of his strategists misread Brazil's modern electorate.
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Pitted against Lula is Flávio who has called for slashing public spending and has vowed to stronly crackdown on crime and drug trafficking. Bolsonaro has blamed Lula’s policies for negatively affecting Brazilian businesses and households with mounting debt.
Beyond these, is a major Banco Master banking scandal, involving what authorities have described as Brazil’s biggest-ever bank fraud.
It initially hurt Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign after he acknowledged seeking financing from the lender’s former owner, Daniel Vorcaro, for a film about his father. However, further revelations gave Flávio an opening to portray Moraes as an ally of Lula, while triggering a crisis within the Supreme Court and fuelling anti-establishment sentiment that threatened Lula’s re-election bid.
India’s strategic partnership with Brazil in focus
For India, the stakes are beyond just a contest between Bolsonaro and Lula. Both the countries have widened cooperation across energy, critical minerals, trade, defence, agriculture, technology and most importantly, diplomacy, which could face a different set of tests potentially under a new administration.
During Lula's visit to India in February, the countries agreed on multiple areas including pharma, supply chains among other. That was after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visited the Latin American country in July 2025. New Delhi and Brazil have maintained sound dimplomatic relations for about 80 years.
A Bolsonaro win would mean a Brazil which is more hard-aligned towards the United States. This could influence how the country approaches trade negotiations, strategic resources and cooperation. The right-win politician has advocated directing Brazil’s rare earth resources towards Washington’s strategic interests in its competition with China, according to ICWA analysis.
"Under Lula, Brazil has maintained robust trade relations with both US and China and has not picked a side,” wrote Dr. Girisanker SB, Research Associate, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
New Delhi finds itself in a spot before the election concludes. A question remains if Brazil would continue pursuing an independent foreign policy that allows it to work with India, even as it deepens its ties with the United States. A more US-oriented Brazil could potentially also complicate efforts by emerging economies to coordinate positions on trade, development finance and reform of global institutions.
BRICS faces a test of strategic autonomy
The country whose initial letter begins the word 'BRICS' could also have a different approach under a Bolsonaro presidency. However, a closer relationship with the Trump administration would not essentially mean withdrawing from the grouping.
Under Lula, Brazil made efforts to strengthen BRICS and turn it into a platform for creating financing and reform for improved global governances while also remained part of the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Dr. Girisanker argues that Brazil’s approach under Lula reflects active non-alignment — a strategy of maximising national interests without committing exclusively to either side of the US-China rivalry.
“Lula in fact find BRICS as an alternative platform for development, financing, and in advocating for reforms of western institutions to adequately represent the interest of emerging economies," he wrote.
Bolsonaro's potential approach can be a shadow of what he has advocated for. He has called for restricting the integration of Brazil's Pix instant-payment system with non-Western cross-border settlement networks, a position that is against Lula's push to diversify financial connectivity. Bolsonaro has further been critical of Brazil's engagement with China, particularly where trade has failed to create sufficient value addition and employment, according to Dr. Girisanker.
Brazil’s experience under former President Bolsonaro suggests that improved ties with Washington need not mean abandoning BRICS altogether. Despite his pro-US orientation, Jair Bolsonaro’s government retained Brazil’s participation in the grouping, reflecting its importance.
Brazil would also face constraints in any attempt to reorient its foreign policy. Its trade ties with China, the economic interests served by BRICS and its role in South American regional integration could limit the scope for a decisive geopolitical shift.