Texas' make-or-break moment arrives for Steve Sarkisian, Arch Manning originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian used the "rearview mirror-windshield" analogy at his press conference Tuesday to describe the last two weeks.
It's about what lies ahead for No. 19 Texas (4-2, 1-2 SEC) against No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1 SEC). The Longhorns and Rebels meet at 7:30 p.m. ET in the "Saturday Night Football" spotlight game on ABC at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
The rear view shows back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida that have dropped Texas from No. 1 in the AP Poll — 18 spots in two weeks. The Rebels are in front now, and a loss here would be much harder to leave behind for Sarkisian, quarterback Arch Manning, edge rusher Colin Simmons and the Longhorns as a whole.
"The key to the drill for us moving forward is we have to have constructive conversations," Sarkisian said at a press conference Monday. "We've had those. It's easy to listen to the outside noise and the sky is falling and the season is over. What are we going to do next year? Hey, man we're 4-2. Let's be part of the solution. Let's go 1-0 this week and let's get to 5-2."
What if that doesn't happen? Welcome to the make-or-break moment for the Longhorns in 2026 and the potential fallout if Texas suffers that third loss.
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'Arch can play better': Will Texas QB answer?
Sarkisian stirred up a quarterback controversy of sorts – even if he confirmed Manning remains the starter for the Week 8 matchup against Ole Miss. Sarkisian confirmed quarterback KJ Lacey will get first-team reps in practice. Will that be any different than previous weeks?
"Not to me but we'll see how the week goes," Sarkisian said.
This is a moment for Manning, however. The redshirt junior quarterback remains the most-talked about QB in college football the last two seasons. To be clear, there was no way Manning would meet the hype and expectations heaped on the nephew of NFL legends Peyton and Eli Manning — the latter who starred with the Rebels from 1999-2003.
"Arch can play better for us," Sarkisian said. "He's our starter, but I need to see a better version of Arch Manning like I need to see a better version of a lot of guys on our offensive football team right now."
Manning agreed.
"I haven't put good film on tape the past five weeks," Manning said. "I'm going to be better. I'm going to better for myself, I'm going to better my teammates and I'm going to better for my coaches.
What is wrong with Arch? Defenses are taking the deep ball away, which is the strength in Manning's game. Manning had 13 TDs and three interceptions on passes of 20 yards or more last season, according to PFF.com. This year, he has two TDs and three interceptions. In the last two weeks, Manning is 3 of 8 for 145 yards with one TD and one interception on passes of 20 yards or more.
Manning also is 17 of 29 (58.6%) for 181 yards one TD and one interception when not being blitzed – an average of 6.2 yards per attempt that has knocked the explosives out of the passing attack.
So, what is the solution?
"I feel like I'm being too hesitant to be honest, I'm going to die on the hill of I'm letting it rip," Manning said.
How important is this start? Win, and all that noise dies down like it did after the 24-23 victory against No. 1 Ohio State on Sept. 12. Struggle and lose, and the rep count for Lacey will be a talking point and the rumors of Manning either entering the transfer portal or the 2027 NFL Draft will continue to swell. How has Manning responded after a meeting with Sarkisian this week?
"He has a chip on his shoulder and I appreciated it," Sarkisian said.
MORE: How far is Arch Manning's 2027 NFL Draft stock falling?
Can Steve Sarkisian turn two-loss Texas around?
Sarkisian pointed to the reasons for the shocking 27-24 loss to Florida in Week 7. The Longhorns had just 19 total offensive plays in the second half. Sarkisian lamented a “crummy call” on a rollout pass with Manning and pointed to the parity in the SEC. After all, Florida beat Ole Miss 52-28 on Sept. 26.
"The biggest area where I was disappointed — and I think we all were and all are — we just were really poor in critical situations in the game," Sarkisian said.
That tends to fall on coaching. Sarkisian does deserve credit for back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances in 2023-24. Texas has a 39-10 record since 2023 – the sixth-best record among Power 4 schools behind Ohio State (43-7), Georgia (42-7), Oregon (42-7), Notre Dame (40-8) and Ole Miss (39-8).
The Longhorns are tied with the Buckeyes and Bulldogs for most NFL Draft picks the last three years at 29.
But this year was supposed to be different. The Athletic reported Texas spends between $45-55 million on NIL — and Manning, edge rusher Colin Simmons, tackle Trevor Goosby and receiver Cam Coleman are expected to be first-round picks in the 2027 NFL Draft.
A third loss would make the College Football Playoff a long-shot for the third straight season, and Sarkisian would take heat for under-performing with a loaded roster. Would it be time to hand someone else the keys to the Lamborghini?
The hot-seat talk would heat up exponentially for Sarkisian, and the question at hand is simple.
Sarkisian had back-to-back five-star quarterbacks in Quinn Ewers and Manning. The Longhorns have played for a SEC championship and reached the College Football Playoff semifinals in that stretch. But Texas is 7-9 against top-10 teams and 3-7 against top-five teams under Sarkisian.
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Will Texas drama continue?
As if that’s not enough, Simmons — a Sporting News Midseason All-American who leads the FBS with 10.5 sacks — is expected to miss a few weeks with a high ankle sprain. This is the latest setback for the Longhorns, who have had drama attached to most of their games this season.
In Week 2, it was the fallout from the postgame interview with Holly Rowe. Simmons was penalized for “simulating using the restroom” during a 20-17 victory against Tennessee on Sept. 26, and the fallout from the back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida still stands.
"You deal with things every year," Sarkisian said. "Some are more public than others, but you deal with stuff every year but you manage them accordingly as they come."
Now, the soap-opera season continues against the Rebels, and a trip to No. 18 LSU is still on the schedule for Nov. 18. Can Texas silence the noise in prime time?