- One in two CIOs expect to miss their AI ROI targets in 2027
- AI budgets are rising, but not enough to keep up with inflation
- A quantum computing breakthrough could put further strain on budgets
New research has claimed AI is set to account for a fifth of all business technology spend in 2027 as companies invest more in thought-out deployments.
However, despite the fact that experimentation is evolving into meaningful adoption, more than half of the CIOs surveyed in Forrester's latest State Of AI Survey 2026 expect to miss their AI ROI targets next year.
The report also details what it means for AI to be considered a success – around half (45%) of CIOs prefer to see an ROI within one year to consider their rollouts a success.
AI still isn't delivering promised ROI
Over the last year, just one in five (22%) AI decision makers have reported a positive impact on their earnings.
Looking ahead, Forrester predicts that businesses will finally become better at linking their AI investments to actual financial outcomes.
All of this, of course, comes amid ongoing financial pressures. Although most tech leaders expect to increase their budgets next year, just one in two (53%) expect this to be above inflation, meaning many are just struggling to keep up with rising costs.
Forrester also touches on rising AI consumption costs, such as per-token costs, with many AI providers shifting from seat-based subscriptions to consumption-based models.
To this tune, the research firm expects cheaper, open-weight models to become more popular across many use cases as companies look to keep a lid on costs.
"Open-weight models such as Gemma, Llama, or Qwen are good enough for the enterprise workloads that generate the most token volume, such as document processing, customer support conversations, internal knowledge search, and the routine substeps inside agentic workflows," the report explains.
And just to rub salt in the wound, Forrester also believes we could see a meaningful breakthrough in quantum computing as soon as next year, accounting for even more budget consumption. Nine in 10 (87%) businesses familiar with quantum computing currently have no resources at all allocated to the matter.
All in all, then, it looks like the next year could see budgets strained even further as enterprises continue to struggle with meaningful AI ROI.
Via The Register
