The prediction market industry has been shady from the start, and its biggest players’ behavior over the past few years hasn’t helped.
This week, though, it feels like a new threshold was crossed when Polymarket offered users the chance to wager on whether or not any of the seven male defendants accused of raping a Cornell student at a frat party will be charged with a felony. Polymarket made the market available only outside the United States, and it was eventually taken down, but not before attracting $451,633 in volume, according to Ben Horney at Front Office Sports.
As the FOS story notes, several prominent social media accounts drew attention to the market and asked what the celebrity ambassadors who have taken money from these companies thought of the situation.
View this post on Instagram
Polymarket is taking bets on whether the seven Cornell students accused of raping a student will receive a felony sex crime charge.
Among the athletes endorsing Polymarket:
LeBron James, Derek Jeter, Eli Manning, Sue Bird, Reggie Bush and Richard Sherman.
— Joon Lee (@joonlee) October 19, 2026
Actual recent polymarket markets include “Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?” (e.g. ethnic cleansing of Gaza), “Artemis Il explodes?” and now “Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?”, if you’re wondering what company every major sports league is now promoting
— Adam Johnson (@adamjohnsonCHI) October 20, 2026
Polymarket also invited bets on the L.A. wildfires.
https://t.co/cHaZq3Y33lMLB this year agreed to deal in which Polymarket became the league’s “Official Prediction Market Exchange.”
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) October 19, 2026
In a statement to FOS, a Polymarket spokesperson argued that prediction markets are not about gambling, but about helping build “objective, data-driven insight.”
“Markets bring better, unbiased information about important events, in contrast to the disinformation we’re all drowning in, which too often leaves the public misled and disillusioned to the point of apathy. This case, and sexual assault on college campuses more broadly, are deeply important issues, and markets bring objective, data-driven insight into how a matter like this is moving through the legal system, on a topic that deserves far more transparency and honest attention.”
As many of the accounts sharing the Cornell market noted, this isn’t the first time prediction markets have waded into controversial waters. As of this writing, markets are available on which country Iran might target in an attack, when Somali pirates will “successfully seize a vessel,” and, of course, the E-Sport of Counter-Strike. Markets on Iran are apparently so popular that they need their own sub-hed on the site.
Beyond these obviously gross markets, there have also been controversies over what are known as “mention” markets, where users bet on which words will or will not be said during a sports broadcast, or, let’s say, a State of the Union address. These offer no potential value in “objective, data-driven insight,” and are so hilariously susceptible to insider trading that it is hard to imagine how they were ever deemed legal. The mention markets of NFL announcers cleared $47 million last season.
While some leagues, including MLB and the NHL, have jumped in bed with the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket, others have resisted joining the cause, including the NFL and NCAA — do you know how questionable an industry has to be for the NFL and NCAA to say “no, it’s fine, we won’t take their money”?
But their hesitation only draws more attention to the fact that so many athletes have already cosigned these businesses with their own deals. Just last month, Polymarket announced a partnership with LeBron James, including a new ad campaign featuring Eli Manning, Richard Sherman, Derek Jeter, Reggie Bush, Rajon Rondo, Sue Bird, and more.
These athletes don’t make the markets, and given how broadly acceptable the sports gambling industry has become, it’s not surprising they were ready to take a check for what mostly felt the same. But as moments like these show, while prediction markets and online sportsbooks share plenty of similarities, a few key differences are worth considering.
The safest play is to be like Victor Wembanyama—just say no to both checks and make your money on the court.
The post Polymarket’s athlete endorsers face scrutiny after market offered on Cornell 7 appeared first on Awful Announcing.