If you like physical defense, principled coaching, winning margins on the offensive glass, and put-a-bow-on-it storylines, I have juuust the Finals matchup for you!
The Golden State Valkyries are set to face off against the Atlanta Dream in the 2026 WNBA Finals, which naturally means we’re going to have a first-time champion. In fact, this is the first Finals series not to feature A’ja Wilson (Aces) or Breanna Stewart (Storm or Liberty) in five years, and only the second series without either of them in the last eight.
We’re entering unfamiliar waters, folks.
A Valkyries win would be gratifying. Consider, among other things:
Gabby Williams, having a tremendous postseason run (22.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.8 steals), would win her first title in her first season with a new club.
Head coach Natalie Nakase would be a Year 2 champion, fresh off of leading the Valkyries to the playoffs in their inaugural season.
Kiah Stokes would add another ring to her collection, while Tiffany Hayes would earn her first.
It’d be one heck of a called shot from Joe Lacob, who gave the Valkyries a five-year timeline to win a championship. Five years for an expansion team is ambitious; winning it in the second year of existence? Whew.
A Dream win would also be gratifying. Consider, among other things:
Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray would earn their first titles together, further cementing them as one of the best wing duos in basketball.
Angel Reese would win her first WNBA title, months after being traded from the Chicago Sky.
DeWanna Bonner’s departure from Phoenix would pay off, with her being a major contributor en route to her third ring.
Head coach Karl Smesko would be a Year 2 champion after making the leap from a storied college coaching career.
The storylines are awesome. These fanbases are energized — especially considering the recent news of the Dream being able to secure State Farm Arena for their upcoming home games. And, again, the basketball should be tantalizing.
On that front, we’re going to take a look at some of the defining questions of this upcoming matchup.
Let’s dig in, shall we?
Tale of the tape
Golden State Valkyries (32-12)
Regular season: 108.2 ORTG (7th), 99.1 DRTG (1st), +9.1 net rating (1st)
Playoffs: 114.0 ORTG, 104.1 DRTG, +9.9 net rating
Atlanta Dream (30-14)
Regular season: 111.9 ORTG (4th), 103.5 DRTG (3rd), +8.4 net rating (3rd)
Playoffs: 113.2 ORTG, 102.0 DRTG, +11.2 net rating
Season series: Valkyries 3-0
June 24: Valkyries 77, Dream 66
June 26: Valkyries 78, Dream 75
July 4: Valkyries 88, Dream 83 (Isobel Borlase in the starting lineup for Atlanta, Naz Hillmon off the bench)
Whose perimeter defense will set the tone?
This is truly where the fun starts.
The Valkyries are headlined by Gabby Williams and Veronica Burton, first and second team All-Defense selections, respectively. Kayla Thornton can be tasked with guarding virtually anyone (more on that later), and Kaila Charles can hound you off the bench.
The Dream are headlined by Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada, also earning first and second team selections, respectively. Allisha Gray, if healthy (please be healthy), is a stout defender; DeWanna Bonner can still switch all over the place and bother folks with her length.
The Dream got a taste of strong perimeter defense in their first-round matchup with the Mystics, but the Valkyries haven’t really dealt with a cast like this in the postseason. The Wings, ironically, didn’t really have wings in the rotation — Awak Kuier was tasked with sliding up to deal with Williams, and Alysha Clark is more of a 4 that can slide up instead of a pure wing at this stage of her career. The Aces were notably light on that front, then had to navigate an absence and a minutes restriction from Steph Talbot on top of that.
Both of these perimeter groups are elite, even if they hit you at different times. The Valkyries are leading the postseason in backcourt pick-up rate (32.8%) and average pick-up distance (52.9 feet); the Dream are dead-last in both (3.2%, 34.5 feet).
I’m fascinated to see which cast of characters will be able to dictate terms and drag things into the mud.
Can Angel Reese keep this up?
Angel Reese just keeps getting better.
We discussed this on the latest episode of The Dunker Spot, but Reese has been especially good during the Dream’s extended 10-game winning streak (last five of regular season, plus a 5-0 run during the playoffs so far). She’s scoring more, scoring more efficiently, still being a menace on the glass, and her rim protection in particular has perked up — a scary development for this year’s Defensive Player of the Year.
Through Aug. 29: 16.1 points (46.3% on 2s, 18% on 3s), 12.5 rebounds, 2.5 stocks, 65.1% FG allowed at the rim
During win streak: 18.2 points (53.7% on 2s, 35% on 3s), 8.9 rebounds, 3.3 stocks, 53.9% FG allowed at the rim
I’m especially fascinated by the finishing piece. The early growth she displayed in her attacks off the bounce — the early physicality paired with a quietly rising release point — started to pay off in the second half of the season.
It’s been an up-and-down run so far in the postseason. She bounced back from a rough Game 1 against the Mystics (3-of-13 on 2s) to go a perfect 4-of-4 (plus three shooting fouls drawn) in Game 2. She went a combined 12-of-23 (52.2%) inside the arc in the first two games against the Liberty, before closing the series with a 5-of-14 (35.7%) clip in Game 3.
How will this look against a Kiah Stokes-led Valkyries group, especially following the series Stokes just had against reigning M’VP A’ja Wilson?
To that end: Reese converted just 37.1% of her 2s against the Valkyries during their regular-season matchups, her second-lowest mark against any opponent (Mystics, 30.6%). If Reese is able to find more success this time around, it’d go a long way in helping to turn this series in Atlanta’s favor.
How aggressive will Veronica Burton be?
Burton is coming off of a career-best campaign that, at minimum, has her in the conversation for an All-WNBA + All-Defense selection. Her ability to drive, playmake, knock down open shots (career-best 42.7% on catch-and-shoot 3s), and defend makes her one of the most impactful players in the league.
It’s also fair to say it’s been a bit of an odd postseason for her, particularly within the lens of scoring production. It’d be one thing if this was simply Burton missing shots; I’m more concerned — or maybe, amused? — by the shots she’s turned down.
On a basic level, her shot attempts are down from the regular season (9.2 to 8.5). She’s logged only one game of double-digit shot attempts (18 in Game 3 against Dallas). Her scoring efficiency is down this postseason: from 47.2% on 2s to 37.5%; from 35.5% on 3s to 31.6%.
And let’s just say her approach (and effectiveness) as a driver were different when comparing the Wings and Aces matchups:
vs. Dallas: 20 direct drives, 1.0 PPP on direct drives, 65% shot attempt rate
vs. Las Vegas: 16 direct drives, 0.75 PPP on direct drives, 50% shot attempt rate
Burton did some of her best work against the Dream this season, with the Valkyries scoring an absurd 1.29 points per possession on trips featuring a Burton drive — the third-best mark against any opponent. I don’t think the number will be that in this series, but the Valkyries certainly need her closer to that level compared to the Aces showing.
Is Rhyne Howard more prepared for the heat?
This is tied to the tone-setting defense point since Howard will likely be defended by Williams. It’s worth broadening the scope in light of how the Valkyries treated her during the regular season.
Howard didn’t have a good time, averaging just 13.3 points while shooting 25% from deep, in part because of how aggressive the Valkyries were against her. It’s hard to establish a rhythm when you’re consistently seeing bodies.
Not only did the Valkyries show help on 80% of Howard’s drives, they blitzed her on over 32% of the ball screens she initiated. That was easily the highest clip of any of her opponents, and it makes sense that the Dream scored only 0.69 PPP on those trips.
How often will the Valkyries go small?
Put another way: how much Janelle Salaün are we seeing in this series?
This year’s unanimous Sixth Player of the Year has been pretty quiet this postseason — and seldom used. Her minute load has been nearly cut in half from the regular season (22.0 to 13.0); she hasn’t logged double-digit minutes since Game 2 of the first round against Dallas.
The Valkyries turned to Aminata Gueye as a bulky, pain-inflicting reserve behind Stokes. Will they stick with that in preparation for whatever minutes Madina Okot logs for the Dream, or will they turn back to Salaün for her floor-spacing and self-creation?
We shall see!
What kind of cross-matching will we see?
A couple of things caught my eye in the last round on this front.
The Dream, like we saw in the regular-season matchups, gave Howard the Breanna Stewart assignment while Naz Hillmon defended Leonie Fiebich. On the other side of the country, the Valkyries often placed Thornton — and later, Cecilia Zandalasini — on Chelsea Gray while Burton operated as a roamer while “guarding” Bri Turner.
Will we get similar hijinks in the Finals?
Based on the regular-season matchups, the answer is a resounding “no.” But these are the Finals; I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Valkyries sprinkled in some Thornton-on-Canada minutes, with Burton roaming off of Hillmon.
(It’s worth noting the Dream, particularly in Game 2 against the Liberty, showcased a willingness to feed Hillmon — either on the block, or with quick-hitting actions — and poke at size mismatches.)
Who will win the possession battle?
The Dream (35.5%) and Valkyries (32.2%) ranked first and fourth in offensive rebound rate during the regular season. That rate has risen for the Valkyries (35.7%) through two rounds, while it’s dropped (28.9%) for the Dream — though their respective opponents certainly help explain that discrepancy.
Neither team could keep the other off the offensive glass during the regular-season meetings; the Dream grabbed 34.1% of their own misses, while the Valkyries grabbed 32.7% of theirs.
This feels like a real swing factor.
Also of note: the Valkyries were among the league’s best in turnover suppression, only turning it over on 15.1% of their possessions this year (3rd-lowest). That number has dropped in the postseason (13.5%). The Dream were fine in that regard during the regular season (16.4%, 6th), but they’ve been spectacular at taking care of the ball during the playoffs (11.0%, 1st).
On the other end, the Dream famously turned teams over all year long — doing so at a league-leading 19.5% clip. That has somehow risen to 22.4% during the postseason; the Liberty are probably still trying to figure out what hit them. If you’re reading this, you, too, have been ripped by Canada.
The Valkyries, meanwhile, were right behind the Dream in turnover-forcing (19.2%) during the regular season, though they haven’t maintained that pace in the postseason (14.6%).
This is the more “boring” part of the series, but certainly among the most important. As basic as it sounds, the team that gets more shots up will likely win this series.