KUALA LUMPUR: DAP and Pakatan Harapan are expected to face an uphill battle in the Melaka polls as a potential Barisan Nasional-Pas electoral pact could consolidate Malay support and replicate the electoral trend seen in Johor and Negri Sembilan.
But political analysts said DAP and PH could still pull off a surprise by winning over young and undecided voters, particularly in mixed constituencies and seats won with narrow margins.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities director Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said PH was likely to retain support in five Chinese-majority and mixed-demographic constituencies.
He said support among Chinese and Indian voters, as well as middle-class Malays in urban and semi-urban areas, would be crucial to PH's electoral performance.
"Fundamentally, rural Malay voters remain deeply committed to the Malay-Muslim narrative.
"Conversely, urban Malays and non-Malay voters, particularly the Chinese, prioritise issues such as the cost of living, governance, development and national-level concerns."
He said several national political controversies could influence voter sentiment, including issues involving Tabung Haji, former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's donation issue, the political and royal crisis in Negri Sembilan and financial leakages during BN's past administration.
He said these issues could influence young and undecided voters, potentially benefiting PH if they shift support to the coalition.
Despite PH's potential to gain ground, Mazlan said the Malay-Muslim narrative was expected to remain influential among rural Malay voters, giving BN and Pas an advantage in a substantial number of constituencies.
"On paper, BN could win easily. However, in mixed constituencies or areas with narrow margins, the situation could shift, potentially leading to surprises in this state election."
Social media campaigning and the ability to address voters' concerns would be crucial in determining the outcome, he added.
"The party that succeeds in mastering social media and effectively addressing key issues will stand a better chance of winning more seats."
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said PH had a realistic opportunity to spring a surprise in Melaka.
"The BN-Pas electoral understanding gives them a significant advantage in terms of grassroots machinery, Malay voter support and electoral momentum.
"But cooperation does not automatically guarantee a complete transfer of votes between their supporters."
He said PH needed to consolidate its traditional support while attracting undecided and moderate voters, particularly in marginal and mixed constituencies.
"A surprise is possible, but it would require PH to translate dissatisfaction with the political status quo into meaningful gains."
He added that young and undecided voters could play an important role, especially in closely contested seats.
"Issues such as the cost of living, employment opportunities, housing affordability and government accountability could influence their decisions."
He said dissatisfaction with economic conditions would not automatically translate into support for PH, as some voters could hold the coalition accountable for unresolved challenges in its role in the federal government.
He said PH should prioritise competitive constituencies, such as Pengkalan Batu and Duyong, while defending Ayer Keroh, Bukit Katil, Kesidang, Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir, which it won in 2021.
PH's challenge in rural Malay constituencies was to overcome the perception that BN and Pas better represent Malay-Muslim interests, he added.
"PH should focus on economic security, rural development, agricultural assistance and equitable governance, while strengthening the credibility of Malay leaders from PKR and Amanah. Protecting Malay-Muslim interests and maintaining Malaysia's multiracial political framework are not mutually exclusive."
The Election Commission has set Nov 10 for nomination day, Nov 14 for polling day and Oct 31 for early voting.
Melaka has 28 state seats, with a simple majority requiring at least 15 seats and a two-thirds majority requiring 19 seats.
In the 2021 Melaka election, BN won 21 seats, allowing it to form the state government. PH won five seats, four of which went to DAP, while Perikatan Nasional secured two.
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