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ASTANA – Kazakhstan expects to receive nearly 3.78 trillion tenge (US$7.9 billion) from oil-sector organizations for its National Fund in 2027, according to a draft national budget for 2027-2029.
Photo credit: CNBC
The draft budget was approved in the first reading by deputies of the Kurultai on Oct. 14. The forecast is based on expected oil production of 96 million tons and a global oil price of $70 per barrel.
The projected decline in National Fund receipts comes as Kazakhstan continues to export more oil than it did a decade ago, although production targets have been adjusted in recent years amid disruptions affecting export infrastructure.
Oil production and export trends
Kazakhstan’s physical oil exports have generally increased over the past decade, rising from 63.6 million tonnes in 2015 to 65.2 million tons in 2022 and 71 million tons in 2024. Exports reached 76.3 million tons in 2025. The increase coincided with record production. Kazakhstan produced 99.6 million tons of oil in 2025, with higher output at the Tengiz field among the factors contributing to the result.
For 2026, the country initially planned to produce more oil but subsequently adjusted its target to 96 million tons, down from 98 million tons, following disruptions affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a major export route for Kazakh crude.
The projected National Fund receipts depend on several key assumptions, including production volumes, international oil prices and the exchange rate.
At the budget’s assumed price of $70 per barrel, fluctuations in global oil markets could affect the amount of revenue generated by the sector. Changes in production and export volumes could also influence the final transfers and receipts.
The proposed 2027-2029 budget sets out the government’s fiscal assumptions for the coming years, including the expected contribution of the oil sector to the National Fund.
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