Texas Breaks Early Voting Records as Senate Race Hits Its Final Stretch

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Texas opened early voting with record-breaking first-day participation across its largest counties, delivering the clearest signal yet that the 2026 Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico has grown into a contest unlike anything the state has seen in a generation.

Harris County Rewrites Its Benchmark

The day's most dramatic figure came from Harris County, home to Houston and the state's largest registered-voter base. Election officials confirmed 104,660 in-person ballots on opening day, surpassing the county's previous midterm first-day record of 63,188 set in 2018 by more than 41,000 votes. Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth declared the record broken before polls even closed, with more than 70,000 voters already processed by 3:30 p.m.

In Dallas County, 76,079 ballots were cast on opening day — topping not only previous midterm marks but also the county's all-time first-day record of 60,573 from the 2020 presidential election, per Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins. Elections Administrator Paul Adams celebrated the results Tuesday, saying Dallas voters had "showed up in record numbers."

A Surge That Crosses Party Lines

The record turnout was not confined to reliably Democratic territory. Collin County — a Republican stronghold north of Dallas — recorded 34,522 first-day ballots, roughly 15,000 more than in the 2022 midterms. Bexar County tallied close to 47,800 votes, an increase of more than 10,700 from two years ago. The Dallas Morning News reported that Denton, Ellis, Bell and McLennan counties each broke their own comparable benchmarks. Analysts caution that strong showings in Republican-leaning areas make predictions unreliable — the surge appears to reflect energy across both parties rather than a one-sided wave.

The Race That Could End a 32-Year Drought

The intensity reflects the stakes. Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994, a 32-year streak that turns every credible challenge into a national flashpoint. The Senate seat opened after four-term incumbent John Cornyn was defeated in a May 26 Republican primary runoff by state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who earned a late endorsement from President Donald Trump and won 63.8% of the vote. Paxton's November opponent is James Talarico — a four-term state House member from North Austin who defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett and others in a competitive Democratic primary and whom observers describe as running the most heavily funded Senate campaign in Texas Democratic Party history.

The race has also drawn a notable stream of Republican crossover endorsements. On the first day of early voting, another prominent Texas Republican broke publicly with Paxton to support Talarico — the latest in a series of defections that analysts attribute to widespread unease with Paxton among the state's business and establishment Republican circles.

A Fundraising Race at Historic Scale

Talarico's campaign reported raising $64 million in the third quarter of 2026 — a figure his team said represents the highest single-quarter total ever recorded by a Senate candidate at that stage of a cycle. Paxton raised $18 million over the same period, doubling his second-quarter haul of roughly $9 million, yet still far short of his opponent's total.

The gap has been offset in part by outside spending. Federal Election Commission filings show that Elon Musk contributed $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, which routed that sum to Texas PAC, a group running pro-Paxton advertising in the state. Musk also directed $10 million to the Lone Star Liberty PAC supporting the Republican. Combined ad spending across all phases of the race has surpassed $500 million, placing it among the most expensive Senate contests in American history.

Polls Show No Clear Favorite

Multiple surveys conducted in September and early October put both candidates within the margin of error. A University of Houston Hobby School poll released October 18 — conducted October 10–14 among 2,000 likely voters with a 2.19-point margin of error — showed Talarico leading 48% to 46%. A Marist poll from mid-October placed the Democrat at 47% against Paxton's 45%, a tightening from that firm's late-September survey that had Talarico ahead by six. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll from late September showed Talarico at 50% to Paxton's 47%, also within the margin of error.

One figure attracting particular scrutiny: a Houston Public Media/Texas Southern University survey found Paxton drawing only 83–85% support among likely Republican voters — below the consolidation level analysts typically associate with Republican statewide success in Texas. Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy who co-authored the poll, cited Paxton's underperformance within his own base, President Trump's negative approval ratings in Texas, and Democrats' credible push for Senate control as compounding headwinds for the Republican ticket.

November 3 Will Decide

Texas enters this election with more than 19 million registered voters — a state record and about 1.4 million more than in 2022. With first-day early voting figures already exceeding any prior midterm cycle, forecasters say the state is on track for its highest midterm participation in modern history. Whether that wave produces Texas' first Democratic Senate victory in more than 30 years or delivers another Republican hold will be determined when ballots are fully certified on Election Day, November 3.

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