I have been pro-immigration since I first started thinking about the subject in the 1970s, but in recent times a new issue has come to the forefront: large-scale immigration from Africa, and specifically sub-Saharan Africa. The president recently has helped inflame this debate, posting on Truth Social last week that Minnesotans should “fight back” against Somali immigrants he says have “taken over” the state. It seems to be a good time for a fuller accounting of what immigration from Africa will mean for America, at scale and over time.
First, consider that the U.S. is likely to draw proportionately fewer newcomers from more familiar regions in the near future. Immigration to the United States has come from all over historically, most recently from Mexico, as America now has up to 40 million ethnic Mexicans. Yet that migration pattern is unlikely to continue, if only because Mexico has such low fertility rates, 1.2 children per woman according to one very recent measurement. Latin American nations now frequently have, on a nation-to-nation basis, lower fertility rates than the United States. So peak Latino migration likely lies behind us.
In contrast, most African nations still have above-replacement fertility rates, even though rates are mostly falling. In populous Nigeria, for instance, the total fertility rate is estimated at 4.4 per woman. Africa is also a relatively poor part of the world, which can translate into a desire for migrants to leave for wealthier and also more democratic countries.
At some point the world’s wealthier countries will have to decide: Do we shrink in population, or do we admit sizable numbers of migrants from Africa?