Fighting in Ethiopia and the Risk of Regional Spillover

In September, fighting broke out in Ethiopia’s Tigray region between Ethiopian government forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), effectively collapsing the 2022 peace deal. In October, Ethiopian forces recaptured an airport and towns from the TPLF and started moving closer to the border with Eritrea. The renewed conflict raised concerns about both increased instability within Ethiopia — particularly as the TPLF joined with several other armed groups under a new Alliance for Survival — and the potential for a new war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of supporting the TPLF and sending its own forces across the border into Tigray. The two countries severed diplomatic ties.Increased conflict in northern Ethiopia comes amid longstanding regional tensions, including disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s impact on the Nile River and landlocked Ethiopia’s ambitions to gain direct access to the sea. We asked five experts to assess the risks that the conflict in Tigray poses for Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, and Egypt.Read more below.William Davison Editor with Africa Confidential Founder of Ethiopia Insight Although unlikely, the biggest risk for Ethiopia is state collapse. This could occur if the TPLF produces stiff resistance that in turn boosts insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, leading to a rebel march on Addis Ababa — a recipe for worsening disorder.A less dramatic risk is that the federal military gets bogged down in Tigray as the TPLF mounts an insurgency with support from Eritrea. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government would then lose ground against rebels elsewhere. While not an existential threat, this scenario would deepen Ethiopia’s insecurity.The most achievable upside is defeat of the TPLF, the driving force of ethnonationalism. This would mean the failure of the rebel coalition, allowing Abiy to push ahead with constitutional reforms that centralize power and de-ethnicize the federation.If