The Rays’ Bad Decisions Doomed Them in Game 1 of the World Series

The Brewers struck first in the 2026 World Series, notching a 3–2 win in Game 1 on Friday night. The Rays’ decision-making might have been Milwaukee’s MVP on the night.

The game was played on a knife’s edge against a team that rarely makes mistakes. Tampa Bay made too many of its own and squandered an opportunity to seize an early advantage in the series. The two most glaring errors came on the base paths in back-to-back innings, killing potential rallies with the heart of the order due up.

Victor Mesa Jr. singled to lead off the top of the fifth off Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski. He advanced to second on a Ben Williamson groundout, and was still there when Yandy Díaz stepped to the plate with two down. This was a great spot for the Rays, as Díaz’s .370 batting average with runners in scoring position led all qualified MLB hitters during the regular season. So far in the postseason, his OPS in those situations is 1.229.

Then, with Díaz facing an 0–2 count, Mesa attempted to steal third base. Unfortunately for the Rays, Misiorowski unleashed a 103 mph fastball on that pitch, and William Contreras popped up with a perfect throw to nail Mesa at third. He had just committed one of baseball’s cardinal sins, making the third out of an inning at third base. He was already in scoring position with baseball’s best hitter in that situation standing at the plate.

That wasn’t the Rays’ last big mistake.

The next inning, Abner Uribe relieved Misiorowski and allowed a one-out single to Jonathan Aranda. With Chandler Simpson at the plate facing a 3–2 count, Aranda took off for second base. Simpson, who had a minuscule strikeout rate of 7.8% during the regular season, couldn’t check his swing on a nasty 89 mph slider from Uribe. Once again, Contreras was up to the task behind the plate, snaring the ball and firing it to second in time to nail Aranda and end the inning. The attempt at second looked more like a hit-and-run than a pure steal. The gamble backfired. The inning was over with Tampa Bay’s star slugger Junior Caminero standing in the on-deck circle.

The Rays lost the game by one run and have every reason to blame themselves.

After the game, Rays manager Kevin Cash justified attempting to run on Contreras in those situations. “Look, we know how talented a player he is, but that’s not going to change our aggressive approach on the bases,” he said.

This is the downside when a team is incredibly aggressive. Tampa Bay was 11-for-11 on stolen base attempts this postseason until those two mishaps. And, to be fair, the Rays executed a perfect double steal in the top of the ninth inning. That said, Contreras threw out 34.2% of would-be base stealers in the regular season, ranking sixth in MLB, and Milwaukee allowed the second-fewest stolen bases this season at 71.

The Brewers won 103 games this season and are now 8–1 in the playoffs. They make opponents earn every win and don’t beat themselves. They’re among baseball’s best defensive teams, committing just 72 errors during the regular season, the seventh-fewest in baseball, while ranking fourth in defensive runs saved at 62. Milwaukee made just 38 outs on base, the seventh-fewest in the league.

They rarely make mistakes. Their opponents can’t afford to.

Cash is right that the Rays shouldn’t abandon their aggressive approach against a team as good as the Brewers. But there’s a difference between being aggressive and being reckless. Mesa crossed that line Friday night.

These are two outstanding teams that play a very similar brand of baseball. It’s likely this series will be won on the margins, where one bad decision can determine the outcome. Mesa’s ill-advised stolen base attempt may have been the difference Friday night.

Despite the Game 1 loss, Cash remained confident in his team.

“This is an extremely confident group,” he said. “They’re going to be fine. We were one swing away from potentially taking the lead.”

Again, Cash is right that the Rays were one swing away from stealing Game 1. But they also cost themselves additional chances with their own mistakes.

Tampa Bay doesn’t need to change its style to win this series. The aggressive approach that helped carry the Rays to the World Series remains a big part of their identity. But sometimes, they need to trust their hitters to come through in big spots.

Against a team that doesn’t beat itself, the quickest way to lose is to help your opponents beat you.