Just two days before Israelis head to the polls, the four latest election surveys show a similar picture: Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, but neither of the two major political blocs has enough seats to secure a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
With the election campaign entering its final stretch, the battle to cross Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold could significantly affect the distribution of seats and the balance of power in the next Knesset.
A comparison of the four polls published over the weekend, along with their average results, shows that neither Netanyahu nor his political rivals currently has a clear path to forming a government.
Maariv poll: Ofer Winter fails to cross electoral threshold as Netanyahu bloc loses ground
According to the final Maariv poll before the election, the opposition's change bloc has strengthened to 54 seats, compared with 48 for Netanyahu's bloc.
The shift comes as Ofer Winter's People of Israel party fails to cross the electoral threshold, receiving 3% of the vote, just below the required 3.25%.
The poll also shows United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit losing one seat each, while Likud, Shas, and the Religious Zionist Party (RZP) each gain a seat. Overall, Netanyahu's coalition bloc has lost three seats compared with the previous week's poll.
Among the opposition parties, the most significant change is the rise of former prime minister Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad party, which gains two seats to reach 15. The Democrats, led by Yair Golan, also gain one seat, bringing their total to 10.
Meanwhile, Eisenkot's Yashar remains unchanged at 21 seats, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu remains at eight.
The poll also finds that the joint Reservists Party and Economic Party led by former communications minister Yoaz Hendel and economist Yaron Zelekha narrowly crosses the electoral threshold, securing four seats.
Channel 13 poll: Eisenkot leads but lacks majority to form government
The Channel 13 election poll gives Netanyahu's bloc 50 seats, compared with 54 for the opposition's change bloc.
Eisenkot's Yashar leads with 22 seats, followed by Netanyahu's Likud with 19. Bennett's B'Yachad ranks third with 14 seats.
Ofer Winter's People of Israel receives 3.1% of the vote, falling short of the electoral threshold. The joint Reservists Party and Economic Party receives 3%, while Moti Leitner's Haredi Public Party receives 1.3%.
All three fall below the 3.25% threshold required to enter the Knesset.
KAN 11 poll: Winter fails to cross threshold as neither bloc secures majority
A poll published by Israel's public broadcaster KAN 11 shows Eisenkot's Yashar losing one seat but maintaining its lead with 22.
Netanyahu's Likud also loses one seat, falling to 20, while Bennett's B'Yachad gains two seats to reach 14.
The joint Reservists Party and Economic Party secures four seats.
Meanwhile, Winter's People of Israel fails to cross the electoral threshold, along with the Haredi Public Party and the Noam Party.
The poll points to a further decline for Netanyahu's bloc, which falls to 50 seats, while Eisenkot's bloc stands at 52.
The Arab parties gain one seat, bringing their combined total to 14, while the Hendel and Zelekha list holds four seats.
Under this distribution, neither of the two major blocs reaches the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority without additional support.
Channel 12 poll: Eisenkot narrowly leads Netanyahu as Hendel and Zelekha fail to enter Knesset
The Channel 12 poll puts Eisenkot's Yashar first with 23 seats, followed by Netanyahu's Likud with 21.
Bennett's B'Yachad ranks third with 15 seats.
Three parties fail to cross the electoral threshold, according to the poll. The joint Hendel-Zelekha list gets 2.4% of the vote, while the Haredi Public Party gets just 0.5%.
Winter's People of Israel drops to 2.5%, keeping it out of the Knesset.
The seat distribution among the political blocs highlights the difficulty Netanyahu faces in securing enough parliamentary support to form a government.
The coalition bloc holds 50 seats, compared with 56 for the opposition bloc, while the Arab parties win a combined 14 seats.
Neither bloc, therefore, reaches the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority without additional support.
Poll averages: Opposition bloc leads Netanyahu bloc by 4.5 seats
Ahead of the election for Israel's 26th Knesset, the average of the four latest polls published by Channel 12, Channel 13, Channel 14, and Maariv shows Eisenkot's Yashar holding a lead of just over two seats over Netanyahu's Likud.
Across the four polls, Yashar averages 22 seats, compared with 19.75 for Likud.
Bennett's B'Yachad follows with an average of 14.5 seats, ahead of Golan's Democrats with 9.5 and Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu with eight.
The joint Reservists and Economic Party list crosses the electoral threshold in two of the four polls, securing four seats in each. Its estimated average support stands at 3.10%, just 0.15 percentage points below the 3.25% electoral threshold.
By contrast, Winter's People of Israel fails to cross the threshold in all four polls, averaging 2.88% support.
Among the parties in Netanyahu's coalition bloc, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit averages 7.75 seats, while Shas and United Torah Judaism each average 7.5. The joint RZP and Zehut list averages seven seats.
The Arab Joint List averages 9 seats, while the Ra'am party averages 5.5.
Across the four polls, the opposition parties average 54 seats, compared with 49.5 for Netanyahu's bloc. The Arab parties average 14.5 seats combined.
The average gap between the two major blocs is 4.5 seats, and neither has reached the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.