CREA downgrades home sales forecast for the third time this year

The Canadian Real Estate Association has downgraded its forecast for home sales activity in 2026 for the third straight quarter.

CREA now expects a total of 444,530 homes to be sold by the end of this year, representing a 5.2 per cent decrease from 2025 — down from its July forecast of a 1.4 per cent year-over-year decline.

The association projects the national average home price to tick 0.2 per cent higher on an annual basis to $681,681 this year, which is around $5,000 lower than predicted in the summer.

In September, the national average sale price fell 1.6 per cent compared with the same month a year earlier to $666,538.

CREA’s own home price index, which aims to represent the sale of typical homes, edged 0.4 per cent lower from August to September, while the index dropped 3.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

The association says national home sales were down 7.7 per cent in September compared with the same month last year, while activity also fell 2.3 per cent from August.

“After a four-month run of modestly positive progress on demand, supply, and prices, many of Canada’s housing markets took a step back in September,” said CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart in a news release.

“This was hardly surprising given the latest jump in fixed mortgage rates, and with the Bank of Canada now widely expected to follow with a rate hike before the end of the year. With housing affordability already stretched, the big question going forward is how much farther will the bank have to go to keep a lid on inflation next year? Until that becomes clearer, this fresh round of uncertainty will likely send some buyers back to the sidelines.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2026.