Amid a string of North Korean provocations including a recent land mine explosion in the Demilitarized Zone, the share of South Koreans who expect peace conditions on the Korean Peninsula to improve has fallen 17 percentage points over the past three months, to 32% from 49%. More than 60% said loudspeaker broadcasts toward North Korea should resume if Pyongyang stages provocations, and more than 60% said they support South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons. Optimism about peace on the peninsula is receding even as public support for a hard line toward the North runs high.
Recently released polls compiled as of the 17th show that negative expectations about peace on the peninsula have widened markedly over the past three months. In the 33rd regular survey released on the 14th by the Korea Society Opinion Institute, conducted on the 12th and 13th of this month, only 31.6% said peace conditions on the peninsula would improve. By contrast, 58.0% said conditions would worsen, exceeding the positive outlook by 26.4 percentage points.
In a survey conducted July 20-21, 49.0% said peace conditions would improve, more than the 46.7% who said they would worsen. Three months later, the positive outlook has dropped 17.4 percentage points and the negative outlook has risen 11.3 percentage points. Compared with the immediately preceding survey, conducted on the 28th and 29th of last month, the positive outlook fell 6.5 percentage points to 31.6% from 38.1%. The negative outlook rose 4.1 percentage points to 58.0% from 53.9%.
61% Back Resuming Loudspeaker Broadcasts as Peace Outlook Worsens
As the outlook for peace on the peninsula deteriorates, public opinion favoring a tough response to North Korean military action is also running high. In a survey released on the 15th by Korea Information Research, commissioned by Cheonji Ilbo, 61.0% said they support resuming loudspeaker broadcasts toward North Korea in the event of provocations. Opposition stood at 31.7%, and 7.3% said they did not know. Notably, 46.4% said they "strongly support" the move, meaning active support accounted for nearly half of all respondents.
By age group, support was highest among people in their 30s at 73.8%. Among those aged 18 to 29, 66.7% were in favor, followed by 66.5% of those aged 70 and over, 60.6% of those in their 60s and 57.9% of those in their 40s. Among those in their 50s, however, opposition slightly outweighed support, at 48.3% versus 44.9%.
Views diverged sharply along political lines. Among conservatives, 85.2% supported resuming the broadcasts, far ahead of the 11.1% who opposed. Among moderates, support also led at 59.5% versus 32.7% opposed. Among progressives, by contrast, 59.7% were opposed and 35.8% in favor.
The National Barometer Survey, released the same day, also found support for a hard line toward the North prevailing. Asked about the recent land mine explosion in the DMZ, 65% said the government should respond firmly to North Korea, more than double the 32% who said inter-Korean military tensions should be eased. Support for a firm response reached 78% among those aged 18 to 29 and 80% among those in their 30s. Among moderates, 64% backed a firm response.
Assessments of President Lee Jae-myung's foreign policy and security record have also worsened recently. In the KSOI survey released on the 14th, 17.6% named foreign policy and security as the area where the president is performing worst, up 5.4 percentage points from 12.2% in the previous survey. That is higher than for other policy areas such as economic recovery, at 16.6%, and national unity, at 15.4%. Conversely, the share naming foreign policy and security as his strongest area fell 5.7 percentage points over the same period, to 11.9% from 17.6%.
Distrust of North Korea and Support for Nuclear Armament at Record Levels
Distrust of the North Korean government and concern over its nuclear weapons are seen as underlying the spread of pessimism about peace on the peninsula and the prominence of calls for a tough response. In the 2026 Unification Perception Survey, conducted in July and released in September by the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University, 78.3% said dialogue and compromise with the North Korean government are impossible, up 11.8 percentage points from 66.5% a year earlier. Those who said they feel threatened by North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons came to 86.4%, remaining in the mid-80% range for a third straight year after 85.9% in 2024 and 84.7% last year. The share saying North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons rose to 90.4% this year from 89.7% last year and 85.9% in 2024.
Support for South Korea developing its own nuclear weapons has also grown. In the Seoul National University survey, 61.1% backed indigenous nuclear armament, up 9.3 percentage points from 51.8% a year earlier and the highest level since the survey began. By political leaning, support was 66.6% among conservatives, 60.8% among moderates and 57.6% among progressives, a majority in every group.
The KSOI survey was conducted on the 12th and 13th among 1,001 adults aged 18 and over nationwide, using an automated response system with virtual mobile numbers provided by the three major telecom carriers. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, with a response rate of 5.8%. The Korea Information Research survey was also conducted on the 12th and 13th among 1,002 adults nationwide using wireless random digit dialing, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points and a response rate of 3.8%. The NBS was conducted from the 12th to the 14th among 1,000 adults aged 18 and over nationwide through telephone interviews using virtual mobile numbers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points and a response rate of 16.8%. The Seoul National University unification survey was conducted from July 1 to 26 among 1,200 adults aged 19 to 74 nationwide through in-person interviews, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. All figures are at a 95% confidence level. Further details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission and in materials released by each polling organization.
