The numbers paint a clear picture. To fill out a five-man rotation, the San Diego Padres will need to explore the trade or free agent markets to backfill a rotation facing the possibility of losing Michael King, Robbie Ray, Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito and Griffin Canning on the free-agent market.
Forget the math for a second. Let's indulge a hypothetical question: what if they don't?
Outside of Joe Musgrove and the potentially retired Yu Darvish, the Padres' rotation is looking like a lonely place in 2027. Nick Pivetta's $14 million club option for next season hasn't been picked up yet. The Padres' internal options could be tested more than fans are comfortable admitting.
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune mentioned four possibilities: Ian Koenig, JP Sears, Luis Gutierrez and Jhony Brito. Here's a closer look at where each of the four stands.
Ian Koenig
Koenig, a 25-year-old right-hander, is hardly a prospect. He was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Cabrillo Junior College in 2022. He was passed over by 29 teams in last year's Rule 5 draft.
But after going 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA in five starts at Triple-A El Paso to end the season, Koenig looks like a sure thing to gain a 40-man roster spot this offseason. That, in theory, gives him a chance to move up quickly.
JP Sears
Sears, who turns 30 in February, is a known quantity. He's made 108 starts for the Padres, Athletics and New York Yankees over the last five seasons, going 34-45 with a 4.54 ERA.
This season saw him make his fewest major league starts (six) since his 2022 debut. A 7.49 ERA in 23 games at Triple-A El Paso represented a dramatic step back, but the Padres might have to hope for a regression to the mean in 2027.
Luis Gutierrez
A 23-year-old left-hander from Venezuela, Gutierrez saw action at four different minor-league levels in 2026. Injuries limited him to 13 starts, and his 7.71 ERA in a two-start sample at Triple-A wasn't an improvement over 2025 (5.40 in one start).
As the No. 12 prospect in the organization, per MLB Pipeline, Gutierrez figures to get a look at some point even if he isn't ready in 2027.
Jhony Brito
Brito, 28, started 13 games for the Yankees in 2023, but has exclusively relieved in the majors with the Padres. The right-hander missed all of 2025 recovering from internal brace surgery and a flexor tendon repair but he returned to pitch nine innings across five outings, allowing three runs, in 2026.
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