The next presidential and local elections are still more than a year away, scheduled for May 8, 2028. Yet, Cebu’s political pot has already started to boil. And among the first to stir it is a familiar name from one of the province’s most enduring political families.
Former 3rd district representative and deputy speaker Pablo John “PJ” Garcia has openly admitted that he is seriously considering another run for governor.
During a media forum last Sept. 29, 2026, PJ said he had been consulting political leaders and people across the province to determine whether there was sufficient support for a province-wide campaign.
“I have not decided, but I am seriously thinking about running for governor,” he said, adding that he expects to arrive at a firmer decision in a few months.
Interesting, isn’t it?
For a seasoned politician like PJ, testing the political waters this early makes perfect sense. A gubernatorial campaign is no ordinary political undertaking, especially in a vote-rich province like Cebu, where established political alliances, grassroots machinery and financial resources can make or break a candidate.
PJ should know. He lost his first gubernatorial bid to then-governor Hilario Davide III in the 2013 elections. That experience apparently taught him the importance of sustained political support rather than relying merely on name recognition or family influence.
But PJ’s intentions raise a more intriguing question:
What about his elder sister, former governor Gwendolyn “Gwen” Garcia?
Knowing Gwen’s energetic personality and formidable appetite for politics, I seriously doubt that she has already retired from the political battlefield.
Or has her stunning defeat in the 2025 midterm elections at the hands of political newcomer Pamela “Pam” Baricuatro diminished her enthusiasm for another political contest?
Perhaps Gwen is simply keeping a low profile while recovering from what must have been one of the most painful defeats of her political career.
Or could PJ’s early declaration be part of a calculated Garcia family strategy to test the pulse of Cebuano voters before deciding who among them should carry the One Cebu banner in 2028?
Remember, in politics, an announcement of interest is not necessarily an announcement of candidacy. Sometimes, it is merely a trial balloon.
Before the last midterm elections, information reaching me suggested that the original political arrangement within the Garcia family was for PJ to run for governor while Gwen would seek a Senate seat.
Under that supposed arrangement, PJ would relinquish his congressional seat to his wife, Karen, who eventually ran unopposed in the 3rd district.
But somewhere along the way, the plan apparently changed. Gwen sought reelection as governor, while PJ did not pursue his gubernatorial ambition.
What prompted the change remains unclear.
There were those who believed that even if PJ had faced Baricuatro instead of Gwen, the result would have been no different.
The name of another Garcia sibling, Winston, was also floated at one point as a possible gubernatorial contender. But those talks eventually faded.
Winston is a former president and general manager of the Government Service Insurance System and now chair of the Cebu CFI Community Cooperative.
Now, with PJ openly entertaining another gubernatorial bid, the question is whether the Garcia family has finally settled on its standard-bearer or is merely keeping its political options open.
What about the One Cebu party? Where will it go?
Since 2028 is a presidential election year, it would be politically advantageous for One Cebu to establish an alliance with a national political party capable of providing broader political machinery and support.
One Cebu, established by the Garcias, previously aligned with the PDP-Laban of former President Rodrigo Duterte. Gwen subsequently parted ways with the party after a conflict with former Cebu City mayor Mike Rama, also a PDP-Laban member.
In the 2025 elections, Gwen enjoyed the endorsement of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. Yet, despite the support and formidable resources behind her campaign, Baricuatro pulled off a stunning upset.
Supporters of former President Duterte, particularly the DDS, were quick to credit themselves for helping deliver Baricuatro’s victory.
But political friendships, especially those forged during elections, do not always survive the changing political landscape.
The DDS have reportedly distanced themselves from Governor Pam following her perceived political accommodation with the Marcos administration, particularly after her selection as chair of the Regional Development Council 7.
Nevertheless, the apparent estrangement presents an interesting political opportunity for Gwen and One Cebu. Could Gwen exploit this opening to rebuild their alliance with the Duterte camp?
Would the Garcias return to PDP-Laban in time for the 2028 presidential elections?
After all, political alliances in our country are never permanent. The Garcias know this political reality only too well.
What about Governor Pam?
If Governor Baricuatro seeks reelection in 2028, she will no longer be the political newcomer who surprised Cebu’s established political machinery in 2025.
She will be running as an incumbent, with both the advantages and liabilities that come with holding public office.
Her performance as governor, her handling of provincial concerns, her relationship with local chief executives and her ability to maintain the coalition that brought her to power will inevitably be subjected to public scrutiny.
Still, there is one question that deserves serious consideration.
Are there no other capable Cebuano leaders willing to challenge Governor Baricuatro should she seek reelection? Must the political conversation always revolve around PJ, Gwen, Winston, or another member of the Garcia family?
Surely, a province as politically significant as Cebu deserves a wider field of choices.
But until Gwen herself declares her political intentions, the more intriguing question will continue to linger:
Is PJ preparing to run for governor, or is he merely clearing the runway for Gwen’s political comeback?
In Cebu politics, though, never underestimate a Garcia. But after the 2025 elections, neither should the Garcias underestimate the Cebuano voter.