The San Francisco 49ers have a chance to go 6-0 on Monday night when they host the Washington Commanders at Levi’s Stadium in primetime. Heading into the game, the 49ers are 7.5-point favorites on a hefty 51.5 point total.
San Francisco has been on a heater to start the year, and they’ve had success over some quality opponents so far. The Niners have blown out the Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins. They beat the Arizona Cardinals, who have looked more competitive than expected this year. And they’ve beaten the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos, who were both in their respective conference championship games last year.
They’re taking on a Commanders team coming off an embarrassing loss, as a last-second blunder by quarterback by quarterback Jayden Daniels forced them into a tie with the New York Giants last weekend.
San Francisco does have some injury news going into the game, as receiver Mike Evans is expected to play despite missing the entire week of practice.
How can they pull off the win on Monday night? Here are three keys to a Niners win in Week 6.
Maintain third down efficiency
The 49ers have been the second-most efficient offense in the NFL through Week 6, ranking only behind the Buffalo Bills in EPA per play.
A big part of that has been winning on early downs. They’re by far the most efficient offense on the league by EPA per play on first and second downs. As a result, they don’t get to third downs that often, ranking 32nd in the NFL in third downs per game.
The Commanders have actually been quite a solid early-down defense, ranking eighth in the NFL in EPA allowed per play on first and second downs. However, when you get to third downs, it’s a different story.
Washington is 28th in the NFL on third downs by EPA allowed per play. They struggle to get off the field, ranking 24th in the NFL in third down conversion rate allowed (43.2 percent).
The 49ers have regularly been an elite third-down conversion team under Kyle Shanahan, and they lead the NFL in conversion rate this year, while ranking second in success rate on third downs.
This is setting up to be a strong environment for the 49ers offense, and the total indicates so. The numbers are on their side here in this matchup with both early down, and especially third-down success.
Contain the quarterback
Washington’s offensive line has been better than expected this year, and the Commanders have shown they want to run the ball as well. The issue? They’ve been inefficient in doing so.
But with Jayden Daniels back, Washington’s run game saw a boost last weekend, with the quarterback going for over 100 yards and two touchdowns on the ground alone.
The 49ers will be in a good spot if they can continue stopping the run on Monday. But a big part of the equation is accounting for Daniels’s feet too, which is what makes the passing game more dangerous as well with the scramble drills.
Raheem Morris has been creative getting pressure on the quarterback this year. This could be more of a contain game for the 49ers’ defensive line, and stopping the run on early downs will also help mitigate the threat of Daniels and force Washington into unfavorable situations.
Get off to a strong start
The 49ers have had a couple of impressive finishes to games this season, thanks to some clutch play from Brock Purdy.
The MVP candidate engineered some fourth-quarter scoring drives to win games against both Denver and Seattle, and the 49ers are 6-0 as a result. He also helped shutdown Arizona’s late comeback effort in Week 3, leading to the 36-30 win.
San Francisco has shown they can win early. But getting off to a strong start here feels like a big key. One, we just mentioned Washington’s struggles running the ball. Playing from behind for a large portion of the game would only make them even more one-dimensional.
Two, the Niners remain banged up at receiver, and Mike Evans is clearly hurt coming into this one. Even against a shoddy Commanders pass defense, it would be ideal if the 49ers didn’t have to rely as much on Evans and his banged-up self in a game where they’re favored by 7.5 points.
We also saw the run game start coming to life against Seattle. Remaining balance feels like the way to solve this Commanders defense, and the 49ers have been highly efficient this season when they’ve been able to.
The Niners are at home here as big favorites. The matchup plays into their favor, and it feels like a spot where they should take care of business, rather than letting things linger against a dangerous quarterback.