DHL Group has raised its full-year 2026 earnings guidance after a third quarter in which broad-based demand growth and a sharply stronger result at its DHL Express segment put the group ahead of the outlook it carried into the second half of the year.
Reported group earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are now expected to exceed 7 billion euros ($7.9 billion) for 2026, up from more than 6.5 billion euros ($7.3 billion) previously, according to the preliminary ad hoc disclosure DHL published on Friday.
Expected earnings for the company’s divisions including DHL Express, DHL Global Forwarding, DHL Supply Chain and DHL eCommerce were raised to more than 6.4 billion euros ($7.2 billion) from more than 5.9 billion euros ($6.6 billion), while the outlook for its German parcel division was left unchanged.
Preliminary third-quarter figures published with the guidance change show DHL Group’s revenue rising by more than 12 percent year over year to around 22.6 billion euros ($25.4 billion), with group EBIT growing 16 percent, reaching around 1.7 billion euros ($1.9 billion) against 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) a year earlier.
DHL Express reported EBIT of around 1.04 billion euros ($1.2 billion) against 692 million euros ($779 million) a year earlier, and the company attributed the performance to yield and cost measures as well as operating leverage from parcel weight growth.
The market underneath that result spent the entire quarter short of air cargo capacity, with demand growth outrunning supply in every month of the period.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recorded global air cargo demand growth of 3.9 percent in July against capacity growth of 1.7 percent, before demand then accelerated to 4.4 percent in August while total capacity fell 0.1 percent. Xeneta’s monthly series runs through the full quarter and tells the same story, with volumes up 5 percent in July and 6 percent in both August and September against capacity that was flat in July and August before growing just 2 percent in September.
Spot pricing reflected the squeeze throughout the quarter, with Xeneta’s global spot rate averaging $3.13 per kilogram in August, up 24 percent year over year, and $3.10 per kilogram in September, up 27 percent.
DHL Express CEO John Pearson had described that dynamic at a Sept. 17 capital markets briefing, saying that the company had “some tailwind” from the Iran war and the ensuing capacity constraints and supply chain pressures.
The logistics giant quantified the wider benefit in its guidance filing, noting that the capacity constraints in the air freight market contributed roughly 100 million euros ($112 million) to the Express result for the quarter.
Competing capacity in the market’s most contested region contracted during the same period. Middle Eastern carriers recorded a 6.5 percent year-to-date decline in cargo traffic through August, according to IATA, because the erosion they suffered between March and June had not been recovered.
“Interruptions play into our system. We control the aircraft. We have our own facilities. We can find more aircraft quickly. We can put aircraft on the ground. We can move aircraft tails around,” Pearson said last month. “The types of things that are going on in this fragmented and quickly changing world of global trade, such as when de minimis suddenly shuts you out of one market, are playing into those assets.”
De minimis reform was “a bit of a non-issue” for DHL Express, Pearson indicated, despite the EU introducing its three-euro customs duty on low-value parcels from July 1. Although there was a 40 percent volume drop on the China-to-Europe lane after the legislation was implemented, according to aviation consultancy Aevean, Pearson addressed the shift directly when analysts raised it at the September briefing.
“There were some volumes that went away that probably shouldn’t have been on our network, weren’t necessarily at the price we would be happy,” said Pearson. “A little bit similar to some of the big Chinese merchants and mega merchants into the U.S., we were already refining and profiling our profile with those customers before de minimis happened. Then when de minimis happened, it kind of answered it for itself.”
Record fuel prices helped the company’s outlook by adding a further layer to reported yields rather than simply adding to DHL’s costs. According to the Jet Fuel Price Monitor from IATA and S&P Global Energy Platts, jet fuel shot up north of $150 per barrel by late July, up more than 70 percent from the year prior. In its August release, IATA said that strong demand and higher load factors helped airlines recoup some of the exceptionally high fuel costs during the month.
As of Oct. 20, jet fuel is $192.44 per barrel, up 113.7 percent compared to the year-ago weekly average.
DHL Group also upgraded its target for free cash flow excluding net mergers and acquisitions to more than 3.2 billion euros ($3.6 billion), up from approximately 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion) previously.
The upgrade comes despite major upgrades across its air and ground cargo network worldwide, and roughly 255 million euros ($286.5 million) in tariff refunds during the quarter after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled the Trump administration’s IEEPA duties illegal.
Capital expenditure is now estimated at around 3.6 billion euros ($4.1 billion) from a prior range between 3 billion euros ($3.4 billion) and 3.3 billion euros ($3.7 billion).
DHL’s full third-quarter report will be published as scheduled on Nov. 5.