PARAGUAY · EL NIÑO
Key Facts
- —What is happening Paraguay’s emergency minister warned on Thursday, 15 October, that an El Niño flood could bring river levels comparable to 1983, as the Paraguay River at Asunción stood at 2.29 metres on Wednesday, up 21 centimetres in a day.
- —Why it matters The low-lying riverside districts of the capital are the most exposed, and about 3,300 families there could be affected if the river reaches 3.5 metres, while US forecasters rate a strong to very strong El Niño as likely.
- —The numbers The river stood at 2.29 metres in Asunción on Wednesday against a record 9.01 metres on 29 May 1983, and the city’s emergency plan carries a G. 7,000 million (about US$1.2 million) budget.
- —Who is who Arsenio Zárate runs the National Emergency Secretariat (SEN), Óscar González is the Defence Minister directing troop support, and NOAA is the US weather and ocean agency that issues the El Niño outlook.
- —What to watch Watch the daily river readings in Asunción, whether the water reaches 3.5 metres and the Chacarita riverside district, and the next US El Niño update due on Thursday, 12 November.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives 78.5% to a peak of 2.5 or above on NOAA’s RONI index for the 2026 to 2027 El Niño, with about US$97,000 traded (15 October, 12:16 p.m. ET).
- —Power Index Paraguay ranks 10th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 36.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —What it means for you El Niño winters typically bring a stormier southern United States, so the Pacific event behind Paraguay’s flood risk also matters for US weather, and visitors to Asunción may see disruption near the river.
Paraguay’s emergency minister says an El Niño flood could match 1983 as the river rises in Asunción. NOAA, the US weather agency, rates a strong to very strong El Niño as likely.
Paraguay’s emergency minister, Arsenio Zárate, warned on Thursday, 15 October, that an El Niño flood could reach levels seen in 1983. In Asunción the river peaked that year at 9.01 metres on 29 May, the highest reading in the national hydrology table.
Hoy, a Paraguayan daily, and ABC Color both reported on Thursday that officials expect a rise in the capital. Zárate named NOAA, the US government’s weather and ocean agency, among the forecasters behind his warning.
What the El Niño Flood Warning Says
Zárate leads the National Emergency Secretariat (SEN), Paraguay’s disaster relief agency. ABC Color, an Asunción daily, and the regional outlet RCC quoted him saying forecasts point to a very strong El Niño.
He said the river rose almost 1.5 metres in 15 days and now stands about two metres above its reference level. ABC Color said the SEN and the Defence Ministry may move riverside families to Infantry Regiment No. 14 if needed.
How High the River Is Now
The national hydrology service, known as the DMH, listed 2.29 metres at Asunción on Wednesday, 14 October, up 21 centimetres. Its table also shows a record low of minus 1.61 metres on 2 November 2024.
Downstream on Wednesday, Villeta read 2.63 metres and Pilar 4.50 metres, up 22 and 17 centimetres. Pilar’s record is 10.05 metres, also set on 29 May 1983.
These readings are far below the 1983 peaks, but all three stations rose by 17 to 22 centimetres in one day. The Asunción gauge stands about 4 metres above its November 2024 low.
What NOAA Says About El Niño
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its monthly El Niño update on Thursday, 8 October, with an El Niño Advisory in force. It said a strong to very strong El Niño is likely through January to March 2027, with a chance above 83%.
The Niño-3.4 index, a Pacific temperature gauge, reached 2.1 degrees Celsius above average over the past month. NOAA put the chance of a historic event, stronger than any since 1950, at 83% for October to December.
NOAA’s winter guide says El Niño winters typically feature a strong storm track across the southern United States. The northern states typically see milder conditions, and NOAA’s next El Niño update is due on Thursday, 12 November.
How Asunción Is Preparing
Asunción’s council approved an emergency declaration with G. 7,000 million (about US$1.2 million) budgeted for supplies and repairs, the city said. Conversions use the open.er-api.com market rate of mid-October 2026, about G. 5,711 per US$, not the central bank’s reference rate.
José Jara, the city’s disaster risk director, said about 3,300 families in the bañados could be affected at 3.5 metres. The bañados are low-lying riverside districts closest to the water, and the city is mapping flood zones with Paraguay’s space agency.
Defence Minister Óscar González, a retired general, said on Thursday that a river rise in Asunción is imminent, Hoy reported. He said the Chacarita riverside district worries him greatly, and ABC Color said barracks are open as shelters under SEN coordination.
The Paraná is also in flood near Ciudad del Este, a separate event covered in Paraguay Flood Near Iguazú Uproots Hundreds. Itaipú Dam Explained describes the dam and its spillway.
What It Means for US Readers
The warning leans on NOAA forecasts, so Americans can follow the same El Niño that Paraguay is preparing for. The pattern matters at home because NOAA ties El Niño winters to a stormier southern United States.
Travellers to Asunción may see disruption near the river, and the Paraná flood already affects the Ciudad del Este border area. The city said on Wednesday that no Asunción district was yet affected.
For background, see Paraguay in Latin America, Its Role, Weight and Alliances and Paraguay Neighbours Explained. The Asunción city guide covers the capital for visitors.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on the peak of the 2026 to 2027 El Niño has about US$97,000 traded. It gave 78.5% to a peak of 2.5 or above and 19% to 2.25 to 2.5 (15 October, 12:16 p.m. ET).
RONI is NOAA’s Relative Oceanic Niño Index, and a three-month value of 2.5 or more counts as a historic event. These are bets by traders, not forecasts from NOAA or Paraguay’s government.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
No hydrology-service forecast of the river’s peak at Asunción was found, and the 1983 comparison comes from the minister. NOAA’s outlook covers the Pacific, not river levels.
It is not confirmed when the river will reach 3.5 metres or whether the Chacarita will flood. The total cost of the response is not stated, and the Defence Ministry says it will use existing funds.
River readings differ by source: the city’s port gauge gave 2 metres on Wednesday, while the DMH table listed 2.29 metres. The 3.5-metre threshold for 3,300 families is the city’s own estimate.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Asunción flooding now?
Not yet, but officials call a rise in the capital imminent. The DMH table put the river at 2.29 metres on Wednesday, 14 October, and the city said no district was affected.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that shifts rainfall and storm tracks around the world. NOAA says it is strengthening, with the Niño-3.4 gauge at 2.1 degrees Celsius above average.
How does the 1983 flood compare with now?
At Asunción the river peaked at 9.01 metres on 29 May 1983, the highest reading in the official table. The DMH table put it at 2.29 metres on Wednesday, about 6.7 metres lower.
How much has Asunción budgeted for the flood?
The city’s emergency declaration, approved by the municipal council, includes G. 7,000 million, about US$1.2 million, for supplies, walls and bridges. Final administrative approval of the declaration was still pending on Wednesday.
Is the Paraná River also flooding?
Yes, the Paraná is also in flood near Ciudad del Este, a separate event from the Asunción river rise. The earlier report on that flood covers the families evacuated there.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 October 2026; NOAA Climate Prediction Center, North American Winter Features; Dirección de Meteorología e Hidrología, Nivel del Río; ABC Color, SEN warns of a historic flood; RCC, SEN fears a historic flood; ABC Color, armed forces and shelters; Hoy, Defence Minister on Asunción; Hoy, Asunción bañados at 3.5 metres; Municipalidad de Asunción, preventive measures, 14 October 2026; La Nación, Asunción preventive plan (all accessed 15 October 2026).