The Big Read · Brazil · Saturday 24 October 2026
Key Facts
—Vox Brasil poll. Lula 50.6%, Flávio Bolsonaro 49.4% of valid votes, margin of error ±2.15 points.
—Real Time Big Data poll. Flávio Bolsonaro 52%, Lula 48% of valid votes, margin of error ±2 points.
—Runoff. Sunday 25 October decides who governs Latin America’s largest economy.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
41 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
—Court. The electoral court says it did not order any WhatsApp channel removed.
—Records. A TSE judge rejected Lula’s request to supervise a swap of candidates’ records.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket: Flávio Bolsonaro 79.6%, Lula 20.5% to win the presidency; US$194 million traded (24 October, 2:38 a.m. ET).
—Power Index. Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.4% · Lula 20.5% (US$194 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 22%
As of 24 October, 2:40 am ET (07:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Brazil votes on Sunday in a runoff that polls call too close to call, and a fight over a pro-Lula WhatsApp channel is heading into the final hours.
In Plain English
- Runoff: A second round between the two top candidates, held because nobody won more than half the votes on 4 October.
- Valid votes: Ballots that are neither blank nor spoiled; this is how Brazil counts official results.
- Technical tie: A gap smaller than the poll’s margin of error, so the poll cannot say who leads.
- TSE: The Superior Electoral Court, which runs Brazil’s elections and judges campaign disputes.
Polls Split on the Last Day Before the Vote
Vox Brasil published a poll on Friday 23 October that puts President Lula at 50.6% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 49.4% of valid votes. The 1.2-point gap is smaller than the ±2.15-point margin of error, so it is a technical tie.
Real Time Big Data, also released on Friday, has Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48% of valid votes. Its margin of error is ±2 points, and Brazilian outlets call that a technical tie too.
Datafolha showed a 50%-50% tie, while PoderData and Quaest also put Flávio ahead. Poder360 counted Flávio numerically ahead in 15 of 17 recent runoff surveys, with one tie and one Lula lead, most within the margin of error.
Electoral Court Fights Over a WhatsApp Channel
On Friday 23 October the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) said it “did not order the removal of any WhatsApp channel”. The statement answered rumours of a ban on “Exército do Lula” (Lula’s Army), a pro-Lula channel with about 10 million followers.
The court called inferences drawn from its short-deadline requests to platforms “absolutely improper”. The note followed a meeting between court president Kassio Nunes Marques and representatives of Meta, X, Google, TikTok and Kwai.
Separately, TSE minister Floriano de Azevedo Marques granted an interim injunction on Friday 23 October that bars Nunes Marques from suspending or restricting the channel on his own.
An injunction is a provisional court order, and the full TSE bench still has to review this one. Federal deputy André Janones created and runs the channel.
Judge Rejects Lula’s Records Request
TSE Justice André Mendonça ruled that the candidates may publish their own bank, tax and phone records without a judge’s approval. On Thursday 22 October Lula’s campaign asked him to reverse his refusal to have the court oversee a release of both candidates’ records.
Lula’s side wanted the court to publish both candidates’ data at once, arguing that nothing else guarantees they come out together. On Friday 23 October Mendonça rejected the request, so each candidate now decides whether to publish.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, Flávio Bolsonaro trades at 79.6% and Lula at 20.5% to win the presidency, with about US$194 million traded (24 October, 2:38 a.m. ET). These prices are bets, not polls, and they sit well above the near-even split in the surveys.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Links These Stories
These are separate stories, but they share one setting: a runoff too close to call, where the rules of the final days matter as much as the polls. Each side is arguing in court over what the other may say or publish before Sunday.
What It Means for US Readers
A result this close can move Brazilian stocks, bonds and the real once the count is known. The winner will also shape Brazil’s trade and policy dealings with Washington over the next four years.
Brazil’s presidential runoff is also the main event for investors holding Brazilian assets this weekend. Markets reopen on Monday 26 October, after the result.
What to Watch Next
Voting takes place on Sunday 25 October 2026, and polls close at 17:00 in Brasília (4:00 p.m. ET). The official outcome depends on ballots counted and certified by the TSE, not on any poll.
The full TSE bench still has to review the injunction on the WhatsApp channel. Further court rulings before or after the vote could change how platforms handle campaign content.
What Is Not Known
No poll can say how many voters will change their mind in the final hours or how many will stay home. It is not known when the full TSE bench will rule on the WhatsApp channel injunction.
It is also not known whether either candidate will publish their records before the vote.
Sources
TSE · Polymarket · UOL poll tracker · Poder360 · G1 · O Globo · Brasil de Fato
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who is winning the Brazil runoff?
Polls are split. Vox Brasil shows Lula slightly ahead, Real Time Big Data shows Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead, and Datafolha shows a tie. All results sit within margins of error, so no poll shows a secure lead.
What did the electoral court say about WhatsApp?
The TSE said it ordered no WhatsApp channel removed. A separate injunction bars the court’s president from suspending the pro-Lula channel on his own, pending review by the full court.
When will Brazil’s election result be known?
Voting is on Sunday 25 October 2026, and polls close at 17:00 in Brasília. Results start arriving that evening, but the official outcome rests on ballots counted and certified by the TSE.
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