In a single week, those who follow the news about Portuguese real estate find practically everything. Local accommodation decreases in Lisbon, but houses do not return to the market.
The Bank of Portugal warns of a lack of 300 thousand homes. Construction costs continue to rise, buying to rent becomes less profitable and the Government announces new support, tax benefits and more than two billion euros for housing in 2027.
In the face of so much news, numbers and measures, it is becoming increasingly difficult for citizens to understand what is really happening. And perhaps this is precisely the discussion that we lack.
Let's start with local accommodation. Lisbon has a 37% reduction in registrations, but that doesn't mean that thousands of homes have returned to traditional rental. Much of the reduction results from the cancellation of registrations without activity. It's an example of how an impressive number can convey a very different idea of reality.
The rental market presents another contradiction. Purchase prices have increased by about 11%, while rents on new contracts have grown by just over 3%, according to a recent analysis. This means that buying a house to rent has become less attractive in many locations. And if we need more houses on the rental market, we cannot ignore the economic conditions of those who are available to invest in them.
Meanwhile, building also continues to get more expensive. In August, the construction costs of new housing increased by 7.5% compared to the previous year. Materials, labour, financing, land, and permitting processes continue to pressure projects. It is not enough to announce that we want more affordable homes if the costs needed to produce them continue to grow.
On the public policy side, measures are multiplying. Tax incentives for landlords, purchase support for young people, affordable rental programs and funds for public housing. These are instruments that may be useful, but their effectiveness depends on implementation. An affordable rental regime that comes into force without the necessary regulations to be applied demonstrates well the distance that sometimes exists between announcing a solution and putting it into operation.
Behind the scenes of the market, the reality is less mediatic. A developer needs to assess costs, risks, deadlines and demand before moving forward. A landlord compares the profitability of renting with other alternatives. A family is looking for an instalment or rent compatible with disposable income. And a municipality tries to respond to needs that often exceed its capacity to execute.
They are different decisions, but they are all part of the same market.
Housing is not solved only with incentives to demand, nor exclusively with public or private investment. It needs supply, predictability, financing, construction capacity and rules that work long enough to generate confidence.
Perhaps we should, therefore, evaluate less the number of measures announced and more the concrete results. How many new houses actually reach the market? How long does it take for a project to be approved? How many dwellings are rented? And at what prices can families access them?
The Portuguese real estate market does not need another succession of contradictory headlines. It needs a clearer reading of reality and, above all, continuity in execution.
Because, in the end, the housing crisis is not measured by the number of news published or measures announced. It is measured by the ability of a family to find a house that they can afford.