For years, Australian authorities have warned that political violence was not just a possibility but a growing likelihood in an era of deeply held resentments, radicalisation and anti-authority beliefs.
Those concerns became a reality on Monday afternoon when federal MP Helen Haines was deliberately hit by a car outside her electorate office in Wangaratta, in Victoria's north, leaving her fighting for her life.
ASIO director general Mike Burgess said in his 2025 Annual Threat Assessment that the threat of politically motivated violence was "flashing red".
"The grievance narratives, conspiracies and online echo chambers that proved so potent during COVID have festered and evolved into a diverse threat environment susceptible to sudden shifts in response to events," he said.
Australia's spy chief returned to the topic in this year's assessment, saying the security environment was "degrading and acts of politically motivated violence are becoming more likely".
In a statement on Tuesday, Mr Burgess said this risk contributed to raising the terror level in 2024 from possible to probable, where it remains now.
"Elevated levels of grievance, intolerance and polarisation continue to create a permissive environment of violence," he said.
"I have repeatedly put on the record my concern about the use of violent rhetoric in public discourse.
"Words matter."
Mr Burgess added that while political debates and peaceful protests were essential for a democracy, "ASIO has seen direct correlations between inflamed language, inflamed tensions and acts of violence".
The AFP has reported soaring threats towards parliamentarians, tripling from pre-COVID levels, which former commissioner Reece Kershaw called a "threat to democracy".
Mr Kershaw said female politicians received "particularly troubling" threats and comments.
In 2025-26, the AFP received 1067 reports of harassment and threatening behaviour against politicians, electorate offices and government agencies, up from 951 the year before.
The parliament has also documented an increase in vandalism and physical attacks against politicians and their staff, while a probe into 2025's federal election showed an uptick of abuse and antisocial behaviour.
The electoral commission lodged 550 complaints of harassment and 59 threats to harm election workers, which were often gendered.
In February, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was evacuated from his Canberra residence after a bomb scare.
Deakin University associate professor Josh Roose said the pandemic - and the policy measures deployed - was an accelerant of anti-authoritarian views.
"Grievances are being fuelled, and people lay the blame at elected officials, the government, at journalists, at academics, officials," he told AAP.
"In an incredibly polarised political environment, it's more and more being targeted towards electoral offices and politicians.
"Politicians are seen as the face of everything that is wrong and representative of an evil corrupt system."
Dr Roose said pockets of support for conspiratorial police killer Dezi Freeman showed an increase in radicalisation, which could be more evident in rural Australia.
Freeman killed two police officers and injured a third in August 2025 near the Victorian town of Porepunkah - about 90 kilometres from Wangaratta - before going on the run and being killed by police in March.
"It ties into a broader issue of what we're seeing in parts of rural Australia, where socio-economic grievances exist along with a sense of being left behind," he said.
"There's distrust of authorities, including police.
"The paradox of this is that (Helen Haines) is a person that lived in rural Australia and was on the coalface of these issues ... she was accessible and just in the wrong place at the wrong time."
Similar democracies overseas, including in the US, the UK and New Zealand, have also experienced political violence or near misses in recent years.