There’s a scientific explanation
If you’ve been stepping outside for a morning walk or alfresco evening meal this October and thinking, “Why is it still so hot?” – you’re not alone. And there’s a scientific reason behind it.
The UAE National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has issued an update on the seasonal impact of El Niño, the term used to describe a set of rare weather conditions, which has been impacting weather globally this year.
توقعات باستمرار ظاهرة النينيو بنسبة 96% حتى مارس 2027، مع احتمالية ارتفاع درجات الحرارة وكميات الأمطار عن معدلاتها المعتادة في الإمارات.
96% probability of El Niño conditions persisting through March 2027, with temperatures and rainfall potentially exceeding UAE averages.
#ElNino https://t.co/M0vRogccS6— المركز الوطني للأرصاد (@ncmuae) October 18, 2026
This year, the El Niño weather phenomenon is set to be the strongest on record, and per the NCM, in the last month, El Niño has resulted in sea surface temperatures above average across the central and Eastern Pacific Ocean. In fact, temperatures have been between 2.3°C and 3°C above the typical temperature for this time of year.
The impact on the region, per The National, is that a blanket of high pressure is trapped over the Arabian Peninsula, driving temperatures up – which is why we’re still left feeling hot and sweaty despite being well into October.
As per NCM, the average temperature for October in the UAE is forecast to be 29.7°C, above average for this time of year. Humidity remains high for October, with the mean maximum relative humidity reaching 78%.
The El Niño impact looking ahead
The impact of El Niño is set to be felt for a fair few more months, with the impact expected to persist through February 2027 and associated impacts through April 2027. Per NCM, the peak is forecast around October-November 2026, meaning warmer-than-normal temperatures will likely persist through the coming weeks.
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