Dubai: The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are about more than Yemen.
By targeting infrastructure and disrupting investment events central to Saudi Arabia's economic ambitions, they aim to pressure Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to both meet Houthi demands in Yemen and persuade US President Donald Trump to ease the US blockade choking Iran's economy, according to Saudi, Iranian and regional sources.
The campaign reflects a calculation by Iran and the Houthis that Saudi Arabia's prosperity, investment ambitions and exposure to disruption make it a vulnerable pressure point in a confrontation stretching from the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf to Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea.
Iran, under mounting economic and military pressure following the war launched by the US and Israel on February 28, is seeking to raise the cost of Washington's strategy by targeting its regional partners, said Michael Knights of strategic advisory Horizon Engage.
"The Iranians are in a chokehold," he said. Unable to force Washington to change course directly, Tehran and the Houthis are "hammering Saudi Arabia, they're hammering the weak point," he added, exploiting the kingdom's economic vulnerability and desire for stability.
The Houthis have a direct interest in easing the US blockade on Iran, their principal regional backer. A relaxation of pressure on Tehran would likely strengthen its ability to sustain the political, financial and military support and flow of weapons and cash on which the US says the movement depends.
But the Houthis also have their own demands, said two Saudi sources and three regional sources familiar with Saudi thinking: an end to Saudi military operations and restrictions on Yemeni ports and airports, regular flights to Iran, restored salary payments, war compensation and an end to Riyadh's support for Yemen's recognised government. Their terms would consolidate Houthi rule over much of Yemen.
A senior Iranian official said the Houthi attacks were part of a broader strategy by Iran and its allies to reshape the regional balance of power by targeting energy infrastructure and key shipping routes. He said Riyadh could not rely on US protection and must instead pursue negotiations, adding that Houthi attacks would continue unless Saudi restrictions were lifted.
The strategy, however, leaves MbS facing a dilemma, the sources familiar with Saudi thinking say. Escalation risks a wider war that could undermine his transformation agenda, but concessions risk strengthening a movement that has challenged Saudi power for years. And the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the threat to Saudi security, investor confidence and Vision 2030.
The Saudi government media office, Iran's foreign ministry and a Houthi spokesperson did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The Houthis have previously denied being an Iranian proxy and said they develop their own weapons.
FLAGSHIP CONFERENCES DISRUPTED
Saudi Arabia has faced a widening wave of Houthi attacks over the past week, including deadly strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and a strike on Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil exporter and a backbone of the economy, which sparked a fire that spread across several floors.
The attacks have disrupted Riyadh's flagship oil conference, prompting top oil executives to withdraw, and forced organisers to offer remote participation at the Future Investment Initiative (FII), an annual global investment forum.
The Houthis have a record of striking deep inside the kingdom, including in 2019, when attacks on Aramco facilities temporarily disrupted about 5% of global oil supply. That was after Riyadh intervened in Yemen in 2015 following the Houthi takeover of the capital, Sanaa. The war became a bloody stalemate before a 2022 ceasefire.
However, Saudi leaders now see military pressure as their only viable option, said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center. "They reached a point of NO negotiations," he said. "They have no other choice except military action."
The Houthis increasingly see themselves as negotiating from strength, seeking recognition of their authority in Sanaa and an easing of restrictions on Yemen, said Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East analyst at the London School of Economics. "What the Houthis are asking now is a victor's peace," he said.
The United States has shown little appetite for another sustained campaign against the Houthis since bombing them last year over attacks on shipping in the Red Sea then agreeing a ceasefire, the sources familiar with Saudi thinking said. Washington's reluctance leaves Riyadh facing a conflict in which military pressure alone may not deliver a decisive outcome.
SAUDIS HAVE MORE TO LOSE
At the start of the Houthi campaign, MbS asked Trump for help to fight the Houthis, but Trump did not agree to US strikes, sources told Reuters last month. Washington instead offered targeting assistance and intelligence-sharing. Trump later said he was considering possible action against the Houthis, while appearing to defer any response until after the US midterm elections.
The US State Department referred to previous remarks by Trump and by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who condemned the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
With drones and missiles exposing vulnerabilities in Saudi defences, analysts warn the conflict risks becoming a war of attrition in which the Houthis believe time and geography favour them. Former US negotiator Aaron David Miller said the group's advantage lies not only in its position near the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint but also in the asymmetry of what is at stake.
"Saudi infrastructure is much more valuable than Houthi infrastructure," he said. "They have so much less to lose than the Saudis."
Yemen analyst Farea al-Muslimi said the Houthis' campaign against Riyadh is a bid to assert regional primacy, risking a far broader conflict across the Arabian Peninsula.
At the heart of the crisis, he says, is the unravelling of a 2023 Saudi-backed peace roadmap that offered the Houthis a path to political legitimacy and reconstruction funding. Under the roadmap, Riyadh was set to help fund public sector salaries and rebuilding. The Red Sea conflict has derailed that process as the Houthis deepen their alignment with Iran.
"We're heading towards the worst outcome imaginable," al-Muslimi said. "A war worse than 2015. This time it will be bloodier, and Saudi Arabia will enter it with fewer allies."
He said no successful campaign against the Houthis was possible without Gulf unity, mainly between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. "The Houthis are not a threat to Saudi Arabia alone," he said. "They threaten the entire Gulf and the wider region. This is not simply a Saudi war. It is a Gulf war."