- North-West and South-West together account for over 43% of Nigeria's 103 million registered voters ahead of 2027, according to a new media analysis
- Tinubu lost Lagos to Peter Obi in the 2023 presidential election, raising questions about how secure his South-West base really is
- INEC figures show the North-West alone is Nigeria's largest geopolitical voting bloc with 25 million registered voters, the report stated
A fresh analysis of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)'s 2026 voter register by Vanguard has placed the North-West and South-West at the centre of calculations for the 2027 presidential election, with their combined 44,697,685 registered voters representing more than 43 per cent of Nigeria's total of 103,428,715.
The newspaper's analysis stated that the North-West holds the largest share, with 25,083,411 registered voters, while the South-West follows with 19,614,274. The North-Central ranks third with approximately 16.97 million. Within individual states, Lagos leads the entire country with 7,488,633 registered voters, while Kano, Kaduna and Katsina rank among the most populous electoral states in the federation.
Source: Facebook
For President Bola Tinubu, who enters 2027 with the advantages of incumbency and a well-established party infrastructure, both regions carry particular weight. His South-West political network was instrumental in his rise to power, and his 2023 performance in the North-West proved equally significant. INEC's zonal breakdown from that election shows he secured 2,542,979 votes in the South-West and 2,652,235 in the North-West, meaning his northern haul actually exceeded his home-region total.
Highlights from 2023 Elections
Yet the 2023 results also exposed how unpredictable these blocs can be. Tinubu lost Lagos to Peter Obi by 9,848 votes, with Obi polling 582,454 against his 572,606. In Kaduna, Atiku Abubakar outpolled Tinubu 554,360 votes to 399,293, while Rabiu Kwankwaso captured Kano outright for the New Nigeria Peoples Party. Opposition votes were spread across multiple candidates, preventing any single challenger from assembling a decisive counter-coalition.
Tinubu ultimately won the presidency with 8,794,726 votes, ahead of Atiku's 6,984,520 and Obi's 6,101,533.
Veteran journalist and political analyst Simon Kolawole summarised the strategic picture after the 2023 vote: "Tinubu did well in 'two out of three' — the South-West and the core North." Kolawole noted that a winning candidate would likely also need meaningful support in the North-Central or South-South, or both, to secure a comfortable victory.
That constitutional dimension adds further complexity. Under Section 134 of the Constitution, a presidential candidate must not only secure the highest number of votes cast, but must also obtain at least one-quarter of the votes in no fewer than two-thirds of all states and the Federal Capital Territory. Regional dominance alone cannot deliver Aso Rock.
Nigeria's Presidential History since 1999
Nigeria's presidential history since 1999 underlines this point. From Olusegun Obasanjo's two terms to Muhammadu Buhari's victories in 2015 and 2019, each winning candidate assembled a coalition that reached beyond a single region or ethnic constituency. The 2015 election, in particular, showed that a disciplined opposition capable of uniting diverse interests across regions could overcome an incumbent.
For Atiku and Obi, the 2027 challenge is to avoid the vote fragmentation that ultimately benefited Tinubu in 2023, the analysis stated. For the president, it is to defend an electoral coalition while managing public discontent over economic conditions, living costs and insecurity — issues that will likely define the mood of voters across both the North-West and South-West when Nigerians return to the polls.
INEC Mentions What Will Not Decide Nigeria's 2027 Elections
Meanwhile, the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Joash O. Amupitan, SAN, has said no algorithm will determine the outcome of Nigeria's 2027 general elections.
Amupitan firmly placed the authority to choose the country's leaders in the hands of its citizens.
He delivered this position at the Artificial Intelligence and Democracy Forum 2026, held in Abuja and themed "Safeguarding the 2027 General Elections in the Age of Artificial Intelligence."
Source: Legit.ng