Thursday October 15, 2026
Mogadishu (HOL) — The Shabelle River has risen above the high flood-risk threshold at Jowhar and is nearing bankfull level, raising concerns of possible flooding in parts of Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions.
A flood advisory issued Monday by FAO’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management unit (WALIM), in cooperation with the Somali Disaster Management Agency, said the river reached 5.37 meters at Jowhar, nearly 1 meter higher than two days earlier.
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The level was 12 centimeters above the high flood-risk threshold of 5.25 meters and just 13 centimeters below the 5.50-meter bankfull level, the advisory said.
The latest SWALIM monitoring showed Jowhar at 5.38 meters on Oct. 14, remaining above the high-risk threshold and close to bankfull.
Authorities warned that flooding through existing breaks in the riverbank between Jowhar and Balcad was likely to continue and could spread into nearby villages and farmland.
Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 millimeters was forecast across much of Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle from Oct. 13-19, with isolated areas potentially receiving between 100 and 150 millimeters.
“With the river already above the high flood risk level at Jowhar, more water arriving from Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti and 50–100 mm of local rain forecast this week, the level at Jowhar is likely to reach bankfull in the coming days,” the advisory said.
Heavy rainfall has already affected central Somalia and parts of the Shabelle catchment in neighboring Ethiopia.
Satellite estimates showed more than 100 millimeters of rain between Oct. 1 and 11 across parts of Hiiraan, Galgaduud and Ethiopia’s Gode-Kelafo area, more than twice the normal amount for the period, according to SWALIM.
River levels are also increasing farther upstream.
At Belet Weyne, the Shabelle rose by 38 centimeters to 3.98 meters, while Bulo Burti increased by the same amount to 3.90 meters. Both remained about 2.5 meters below their moderate flood-risk threshold of 6.50 meters.
At Deefow, near the Ethiopian border, the river rose by 45 centimeters to 2.87 meters, which SWALIM described as an indication that additional water was entering Somalia from upstream.
By Oct. 14, Belet Weyne had risen further to 4.40 meters and Deefow to 3.45 meters, according to FAO’s river-monitoring system.
Authorities urged communities around Jowhar and Balcad to close open river breaks, reinforce weak embankments and move livestock, food stocks and valuables to higher ground.
Residents were also advised to identify evacuation routes, keep children away from swollen rivers and avoid crossing flowing seasonal streams.
Teams working on the Jowhar Offstream Storage Programme were told to move equipment and construction materials away from exposed riverbanks while water levels remain high.
The project, centered on the Sabuun Barrage near Jowhar, is intended to improve irrigation, flood protection and water management along the Shabelle. Restoration work began in September as part of efforts to strengthen resilience to both floods and drought.
Communities in Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi were told to continue monitoring river levels and prepare for evacuation if the water begins rising rapidly.
Somalia has been preparing for heightened flood risks during the October-to-December Deyr season as El Niño conditions strengthen.
FAO warned earlier this year that the country could face extensive riverine flooding later in 2026, particularly along the Juba and Shabelle rivers.
The threat comes as millions of Somalis are already experiencing severe food insecurity. The government and U.N. agencies estimate that 5.4 million people could face crisis levels of hunger or worse between October and December, with projected flooding threatening to worsen displacement, destroy crops and disrupt access to humanitarian assistance.
Somalia experienced widespread El Niño-related flooding in 2023, when overflowing rivers submerged communities, destroyed farmland and displaced more than 1 million people.
The latest advisory identifies Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar, Balcad and surrounding communities as areas requiring close monitoring and early preparedness.