UNITED STATES · ANALYSIS
Barack Obama and Donald Trump spent Saturday, October 24, on opposite sides of the final midterm push. It is the last full weekend of campaigning before the 2026 US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
The vote will decide control of the House and Senate, which shapes tariffs, sanctions and immigration policy that reach well beyond US borders. Prediction markets and the latest polls both lean toward the Democrats, but neither is a result.
Key Facts
- —Who Former President Barack Obama and President Donald Trump are campaigning in rival states.
- —What Both are making closing arguments for House and Senate races before Election Day on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
- —Where Obama spoke in Cleveland, Ohio, and Detroit, Michigan; Trump held a rally in Perry, Georgia.
- —Early vote More than 20 million ballots had been cast by Friday, October 23.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket, 4:53 p.m. ET, October 24: Democrats 92% to win the House, 66.5% for the Senate.
Two Presidents, Two Strategies
Obama rallied in Cleveland with Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown and governor candidate Amy Acton. He told the crowd that “we’re being driven by fear instead of by hope.”
He was also due in Detroit with Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and governor nominee Jocelyn Benson. Trump held a rally in Perry, Georgia, on Saturday and is due at McMorran Place Arena in Port Huron, Michigan, on Sunday, October 25.
Michigan began early in-person voting on Saturday and runs it through November 1. Both parties are therefore asking for support in a state where ballots are already being cast.
Money and Early Voting
Early voting is already large: AP, CNN and Catalist data showed more than 20 million ballots cast by Friday. Early-vote totals are a media compilation, not an official federal count, and they do not show which party is ahead.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican House group, is spending US$9 million in Michigan’s 10th District. A Trump-aligned super PAC is spending more than US$3 million in Montana’s 1st District.
AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm, put ad spending and bookings in the Texas Senate race above US$500 million by mid-October. That makes it one of the most expensive Senate races on record.
What the Polls Say
The New York Times/Siena poll released on Wednesday, October 21, found 36% of likely voters approve of Trump and 59% disapprove. Likely voters preferred the Democratic House candidate in their district by 11 percentage points.
The Harvard Youth Poll, with fieldwork from September 30 to October 7, found likely voters aged 18 to 29 favour Democrats 63% to 26%. Nearly half said their finances had worsened since Trump took office.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, the House market priced a Democratic majority at 92.0% and a Republican one at 8.5%, with US$21.3 million traded, at 4:53 p.m. ET on October 24. The Senate market priced Democratic control at 66.5%, with US$9.0 million traded.
These prices are bets, not polls, and a 92% price says nothing about how many seats Democrats would win. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Election Security
The Justice Department plans to deploy about 1,000 election monitors, said Harmeet Dhillon of the Justice Department. Senate Democrats will send more than 100 staff to observe in nine states.
Republican Don Bacon and Democrat Josh Gottheimer started a bipartisan pledge for House members to accept election results. Polling hours differ by state, so there is no single national closing time.
What It Means for You
If you hold US stocks or Latin American assets, the House outcome matters most for trade and sanctions policy, and the markets already lean one way. A Democratic House would not change who is president, but it would change what Congress can pass or investigate.
Expect results to arrive state by state on the night of November 3, with close races taking longer.
What Is Not Known
Whether the final weekend of campaigning moves turnout is unknown. Senate control is also less certain than House control, with Texas and Michigan among the races to watch.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the 2026 US midterm election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot.
Where are Obama and Trump campaigning?
Obama spoke in Cleveland, Ohio, and was due in Detroit on Saturday, October 24. Trump held a rally in Perry, Georgia, and is due in Port Huron, Michigan, on Sunday.
What do prediction markets say about the House?
On Polymarket at 4:53 p.m. ET on October 24, a Democratic House majority was priced at 92.0%. These are market prices, not forecasts, and they can move quickly.
How many people have voted early?
More than 20 million ballots had been cast by Friday, October 23, according to AP, CNN and Catalist data. It is a media compilation, not an official federal total.
Sources: NYT/Siena poll report, Harvard Crimson, Bridge Michigan, Fox 2 Detroit, NOTUS, Democracy Docket, Polymarket. Retrieved 24 October 2026.
Read more: midterm odds and midterm poll closing times.