Brent crude is expected to trade at $90 a barrel in December 2026, up from Goldman Sachs’ previous forecast of $85, according to Daan Struyven, the bank’s co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research.
“We maintain our base case that continued adaptation of Middle East supply will eventually reduce crude oil prices, while potential renewed escalation still poses significant net upside risk,” Struyven and his team wrote in a report.
Persian Gulf oil exports have rebounded faster than expected and have remained around their 2025 average since late September, according to the researchers. The estimate includes around four million barrels per day of “dark” exports, or shipments carried by tankers with their transponders switched off to conceal their movements.
Despite the recovery in exports, physical crude prices remain elevated. Dated Brent scheduled for delivery in the next month has traded above $130 a barrel, while benchmark Brent futures have recently exceeded $100.
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Struyven attributed the high prices to escalation risks and near-record-low global inventories that are driving restocking demand. Potential attacks by Iran or the Houthis on regional ports, pipelines and oil fields could further disrupt supplies. Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent spot prices include a risk premium of nearly $25 a barrel.
The researchers expect the global oil market to move into a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026 and remain in surplus in 2027, supporting price moderation.
The market was nearly balanced in September, with demand exceeding supply by just 0.3 million barrels per day, compared with a deficit of 7.2 million barrels per day in March. Higher production outside the Persian Gulf and weaker demand have helped narrow the gap.
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Global oil demand in the third quarter of 2026 fell 3.3 million barrels per day year-on-year. Goldman Sachs expects much of the demand shortfall caused by the war-related oil shock to unwind by the fourth quarter of 2027, although demand is forecast to remain 0.7 million barrels per day below its hypothetical pre-shock path.