NEUTRALIZED: Shares of VF Corp. got a welcome boost on Monday, rising 5.3 percent to $15.79 after J.P. Morgan analyst Matthew Boss upgraded the stock to neutral from underweight.
The upgrade wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement, but an acknowledgment that the company is more sheltered from further downside with a “risk/reward profile” that Boss described as “more balanced.” Before the latest uptick, shares of VF were down nearly 19 percent over the past six months as the S&P 500 climbed 13.4 percent.
Boss argued that much has changed at the company.
VF’s top and bottom lines are on track to meet or exceed Wall Street estimates this fiscal year, he said. Helping to fuel that, the “Outdoor Anchored Portfolio” of The North Face, Timberland and Altra are targeting midsingle-digit growth in a sector projected to grow by about 6 percent for the next five years.
The declines at Vans — which makes up 20 percent of VF’s business — are now “ringfenced with ‘high visibility’” for the second half, according to Boss. The fiscal 2029 margin target of 10 percent is also “on track” while net debt leverage should fall to 2.5-times in 2028 from 4.1-times in 2025.
The analyst also pointed to “Portfolio Accelerators,” which are not embedded in his current forecasts, but could provide significant runway.
They include the potential benefits of elevating The North Face’s image, opening more Timberland stores and shining a spotlight on Altra.
Vans could also perk up with more sales to wholesalers — or even see some dealmaking.
Boss pointed out that VF has a history of “evaluating M&A optionality in the portfolio” and could divest Vans as its revenues stabilize at about $2 billion after five years of declines.
The analyst estimated that while a sale would cut the company’s operating income by about $40 million, it would also translate into a “$600 million capital allocation EPS break-even scenario” as money from the deal would flow into the rest of the business.
VF has not expressed any interest in selling Vans.