The future of war is in outer space — and the U.S. is unprepared for the fallout.
Why it matters: An outbreak of space warfare would cripple the global economy by disrupting satellites used for everything from worldwide financial transactions to maritime navigation. It would also hinder the U.S. military's ability to conduct some of its key missions on Earth.
- The dependence on satellites is precisely what makes them tempting targets for foes.
- China has made major advancements, such as satellites with robotic arms that could disable U.S. equipment and lasers that can blind military space sensors.
- Russia lags behind, but U.S. officials fear it may unleash an orbital nuclear weapon that "could pose a threat to all satellites and to the space-enabled services the world depends on."
What they're saying: Todd Harrison, the American Enterprise Institute's space expert, said "we've been under the illusion" that an adversary would target only military satellites and leave civil or commercial ones alone. That's no longer the case.
- "In a future conflict, we could very well see the civilian and commercial space infrastructure that we often take for granted ... being attacked," Harrison said. "Is the American public ready for that? I'm not sure they are."
- "We're quickly coming to the conclusion that there's no sanctuary in space, not even in a small conflict," he added.
Threat level: Last month, U.S. officials revealed that the military had weapons in space — a bombshell admission they said was aimed at deterring adversaries.
Yes, but: Doug Loverro, a former top NASA and Pentagon space policy official, said the deterrence effect is "partially the case, but not really true."
- China and Russia have long assumed the U.S. has had space weapons, he said. In future wars, if adversaries feel they can't gain the upper hand against the U.S. military, infrastructure like GPS could be targeted, Loverro added.
State of play: Aerospace analysts warn the nation isn't prepared if China or Russia destroys U.S. satellites. They say the defense industry lacks the critical supplies and personnel to fight back.
- The space industry is "running hot at peak demand, yet structurally fragile beneath the surface," warned PwC and the Aerospace Industries Association in the intro to a March report — in other words, U.S. space needs are outpacing equipment supplies.
- The U.S. also likely lacks skilled engineers needed to rebuild its space assets after a crisis, RAND researchers said.
Zoom in: The U.S. has more than 13,000 operational satellites, up from just 670 a decade ago, per AEI's Space Data Navigator. China has more than 1,400 sats — almost as many as all non-U.S. NATO countries combined.
- Yes, but: Those numbers can be misleading. China and Russia are working to close the gap in certain fields by expanding launch cadence, growing orbital constellations and developing anti-satellite prototypes.
The bottom line: The military is preparing for space wars, but the nation isn't ready for their consequences.
- Victoria Samson, the Secure World Foundation's chief director of space security and stability, said the U.S. may be "ready to start a war" but added, "I don't know that we're ready to finish a war in space."