Critica tables monster $2.7B valuation for WA rare earths play

Critica Limited has kicked the door down with a blockbuster scoping study for its wholly owned Jupiter rare earths project in Western Australia, outlining a potential world-class development sporting a whopping pre-tax net present value (NPV) of $2.67 billion.

Using an eight per cent discount rate, the study forecasts a pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 56 per cent. Pre-production capital is estimated at A$555.5 million, with total life-of-mine capital of A$606.2 million, including sustaining and closure costs. Payback is estimated at two years after operations begin.

The 14-year operation is projected to generate $12.3 billion in sales revenue and $5.64 billion in pre-tax free cash flow, delivering a hefty average annual return before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of A$446 million.

The assessment mapped out an eight-million-tonne-a-year conventional open-pit operation, targeting 107.3 million tonnes of ore grading 1879 parts per million (ppm) total rare earth oxides (TREO) over the mine’s life. Indicated mineral resources account for 97 per cent, or 104 million tonnes of the material. Inferred resources account for the remaining 3 per cent.

‘The Jupiter Scoping Study delivers a pre-tax NPV₈ of A$2.7 billion and provides a clear technical foundation for the next phase of development at Jupiter.’

Critica Limited chief executive officer Jacob Deysel

Planned output represents just six per cent of Jupiter’s mammoth 1.7-billion-tonne resource, grading 1700ppm TREO, including an initial 160-million-tonne indicated resource. Critica says the remaining 94 per cent lies outside the mine plan, leaving scope for resource conversion and mine-life extensions, subject to further work.

Annual production of contained rare earth oxides in mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) is estimated at 8,300 tonnes, based on an overall recovery of 58 per cent, a grade similar to that achieved in earlier metallurgical testwork. The MREC basket includes neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium and yttrium.

Using a “beneficiation-first” approach, the processing flowsheet combines magnetic separation and flotation to concentrate the rare earths before sending the upgraded material through the more expensive chemical treatment process, known as hydrometallurgy. Testwork achieved a 14-fold TREO upgrade while rejecting up to 95 per cent of feed mass, massively reducing downstream plant requirements and costs.

Critica Limited chief executive officer Jacob Deysel said: “The Jupiter Scoping Study is a major milestone for Critica, demonstrating the potential for a large-scale rare earths development with compelling preliminary economics and a production target overwhelmingly underpinned by Indicated Mineral Resources.”

The model’s base case assumes a gross MREC basket value of US$52.80 (A$81) per kilogram and 75 per cent payability, using an exchange-rate assumption of 65 cents.

Adding another layer of financial appeal to Jupiter’s already impressive numbers, Critica’s economic modelling has factored in the Australian Government’s Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive (CMPTI), a refundable offset of 10 per cent of eligible Australian processing expenditure for up to 10 years. The incentive could deliver up to $264.1 million in benefits, subject to eligibility and qualifying expenditure. Iron, gallium and scandium have no base-case value, leaving them as potential upside. The MREC basket includes neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium and yttrium.

With the financial foundations now mapped out, Critica has turned its attention to the next development hurdles, pencilling in a prefeasibility study (PFS) from early 2027 to mid-2028, followed by a definitive feasibility study (DFS) through to the end of 2029. Work will include drilling and resource conversion, process optimisation and integrated pilot-plant testing, environmental and heritage studies, product qualification, offtake and partnership discussions, and funding.

The development blueprint envisaged construction kicking off in 2030 with first MREC production and sales in 2032. No official reserve has been declared as yet, with Critica keen to emphasise the preliminary study does not guarantee the production target or economic outcomes.

The timing of the study is fortuitous, landing as governments seek to diversify rare earth supply chains beyond China. The International Energy Agency says demand for magnet rare earths has doubled since 2015 and is expected to rise by more than 30 per cent by 2030. Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve includes rare earths, adding to a more favourable policy backdrop for domestic development.

Critica describes Jupiter as Australia’s largest clay-hosted rare earth resource. It sits 70km south-west of Mount Magnet and 270km east of Geraldton, near road, gas and power infrastructure. Jupiter is one of six rare earth discoveries in Critica’s wholly owned Brothers project, positioning the company to potentially unlock a much bigger district-scale rare earths play.

With such robust initial numbers based on just a fraction of Jupiter’s vast resource, Critica has laid out a clear pathway to advance what could become a significant new source of magnet rare earths for Western supply chains. The company must now turn those study numbers into a tangible project ready to move.

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