In the race for Florida governor, Republican candidate Byron Donalds has captured 51% of the Cuban American vote compared to 42% for Democrat David Jolly, as revealed by a recent poll conducted by N+ Univision and YouGov. This survey highlights the varied political landscape among different Hispanic groups in Florida.
The findings, released by N+ Univision, indicate that while Donalds maintains a lead among Cuban Americans and across the state, the broader Latino electorate leans towards Jolly, with 48% supporting him against 43% for Donalds.
Conducted between October 2 and 15, 2026, the poll surveyed 825 registered voters in Florida, including an oversample of 937 Hispanic voters, just over two weeks before the general elections on November 3.
In the overall state electorate, Donalds leads Jolly by 50% to 42%, an eight-point margin contrasting with Jolly's five-point advantage among Latino voters.
The Diverse Preferences of Florida's Hispanic Voters
Despite Donalds' support among Cuban Americans, Puerto Ricans show strong backing for Jolly, with 51% favoring him compared to 35% for Donalds, a 16-point lead for the Democrat. South American-origin voters present a closer race, with Jolly at 47% and Donalds at 44%.
These statistics illustrate the non-uniform partisan preferences of Florida's Latino electorate, despite shared economic and immigration concerns.
Economic Concerns and Voting Trends
The survey reports that 59% of Hispanic voters see employment and living costs as major issues in Florida, while 57% cite housing prices and access as significant challenges. Everyday expenses also weigh heavily, with 61% of respondents identifying food costs and 51% pointing to fuel and transportation as budget strains.
Additionally, 40% of Latino voters believe their household financial situation has worsened over the past year.
Trump Administration's Impact on Latino Voters
President Donald Trump's handling of economic issues receives a largely negative assessment from Hispanic respondents. A striking 70% disapprove of his management of living costs and gasoline prices, while 63% disapprove of his actions on housing.
Immigration policy remains another critical issue, with 55% of Hispanic voters feeling the government's measures have gone too far. Among Cuban Americans, 54% share this sentiment, closely aligning with the 56% of Puerto Rican and South American voters who agree.
Political Dynamics Among Cuban American Voters
Despite discontent with some of Trump's policies, it hasn't necessarily led to a shift away from the Republican Party. Among Latinos who supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election, a substantial 84% now back Donalds for governor, and 85% support the Republican Senate candidate.
In contrast, 28% of those who voted for Trump express some regret or doubt about their decision, though this does not directly translate into a significant loss of electoral support.
Closer Look at Senate Race and Local Contests
The Senate race also shows a disparity between the general and Hispanic electorates. Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angie Nixon among all state voters by 51% to 42%, but among Latinos, Nixon slightly edges Moody with 45% to 44%.
In Florida's 27th Congressional District, Republican María Elvira Salazar seeks reelection against Democrat Eliott Rodríguez, a journalist of Cuban descent. Salazar has a 29% favorability rating among Latino voters in the district, compared to Rodríguez's 22%.
Salazar has attempted to distance some of her immigration positions from the Trump administration's harsher policies, while Rodríguez focuses on economic issues and the cost of living in his campaign.
The N+ Univision poll, supervised by Sergio García-Ríos and conducted by YouGov, provides a snapshot of voter preferences during the survey period and should not be viewed as a definitive forecast for the November 3 elections.
Immigration Concerns Among Cuban Americans in South Florida
In recent months, immigration concerns have taken a particular shape in South Florida, especially among Cuban Americans. A report by NPR earlier in October highlighted dissatisfaction with deportations under the Trump administration, particularly affecting those who arrived during Joe Biden's presidency and now face uncertain immigration status.
The report also addressed challenges faced by individuals with the I-220A form, difficulties in obtaining permanent residency, and cases of deportations to countries like the Central African Republic.
Sociologist Guillermo Grenier from Florida International University (FIU) noted that dissatisfaction among some Cuban American voters might manifest as abstention rather than a shift to the Democratic Party.
Meanwhile, Byron Donalds visited the Bay of Pigs Museum in Little Havana, accompanied by his running mate, Cuban American Senator Bryan Ávila. During his visit, Donalds reiterated his opposition to communism and socialism, voicing support for Cuban exiles as the campaign heats up in South Florida.
Early voting and mail-in voting have begun in Florida, with official statistics showing that as of October 20, registered Democrats returned 394,962 mail ballots compared to 340,591 from Republicans, a difference of 54,371 ballots.
In Miami-Dade, 37,538 ballots from Democratic voters and 28,180 from Republicans have been counted, alongside those from independents and other political organizations. These figures reflect party affiliation but do not indicate candidate preference or predict the election outcome.
The deadline to request a mail-in ballot in Florida is October 22 at 5:00 p.m., while the general elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Key Insights on Florida's Political Climate
How do Cuban Americans in Florida generally vote?
Cuban Americans in Florida tend to favor Republican candidates, as evidenced by Byron Donalds' 51% support among this group in the recent poll.
What are the main concerns for Latino voters in Florida?
The primary concerns for Latino voters in Florida include employment, cost of living, housing prices, and immigration policies, which significantly influence their voting preferences.
What impact has Trump’s administration had on Latino voters?
Trump's administration has faced criticism from Latino voters regarding economic management and immigration policies, with a majority expressing disapproval of his handling of these issues.