▲ AI PRISM* Personalized Economic Briefing
* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six news items tailored to each reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ KDI: "Negative Growth Possible by 2030": A warning has emerged that South Korea's long-term economic growth rate has declined by about 1 percentage point every five years since the early 1990s and could enter negative territory around 2030. With exports excluding semiconductors and automobiles stagnant for 15 years, creative capabilities and productivity gains in the AI era have emerged as key tasks for new employees.
■ Seoul Home Price Gains Spread to Outer Districts: In the third quarter of this year, 54.7% of Seoul apartment transactions were completed at or above previous peak prices, with gains spreading rapidly to northern and outlying districts. As owner-occupier demand concentrates in more affordable areas amid lending restrictions, the burden of buying a first home has grown heavier for new employees.
■ Large-Scale Funding for Construction and Shipbuilding Transition: The government announced plans to create a 3 trillion won overseas construction strategy fund and to invest more than 1.406 trillion won in the AI transformation of the shipbuilding industry by 2030. Changes in the employment environment in related fields and expanded opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises are expected.
[News of Interest to New Employees]
1. Warning of Negative Growth for Korean Economy by 2030
Key summary: A KDI research fellow said, "South Korea's long-term economic growth rate has declined by about 1 percentage point every five years since the early 1990s, and if this trend continues, the country could enter negative growth around 2030." The average annual growth rate fell from 4.7% in 2001-2010 to 3.1% in 2011-2019, with 67% of the decline attributed to slowing productivity growth. With exports from industries excluding semiconductors and automobiles stagnant for about 15 years, the report called for education and selection systems that foster creativity, as well as protection of intellectual property rights for ideas. It also advised shifting industrial policy toward supply chain stability, sector-specific responses and expansion of core industry ecosystems to restore growth momentum.
2. Half of Seoul Apartment Deals at Record Highs
Key summary: Of 10,930 Seoul apartment transactions in the third quarter of this year, 5,977, or 54.7%, were completed at or above previous peak prices. That is 16.5 percentage points higher than the first quarter's 38.2%, extending a trend of widening quarterly gains after 43.0% in the second quarter. The increases were pronounced outside the Gangnam area. In Dongdaemun-gu, the share of transactions at or above previous peaks jumped 36.2 percentage points, from 45.7% in the first quarter to 81.9% in the third, while Seongbuk-gu rose from 32.1% to 68.5% and Seodaemun-gu from 44.4% to 73.5%. Analysts attributed the shift to owner-occupier demand concentrating in relatively affordable outlying districts as lending restrictions and funding burdens increase.
3. 3 Trillion Won Construction Fund, 1.4 Trillion Won for Shipbuilding AI
Key summary: The government will create an overseas construction strategy fund totaling 3 trillion won, seeded with 1 trillion won in public money, to support overseas orders by domestic construction firms. The plan aims to expand package contracts combining development, construction and maintenance, broadening participation by small and mid-sized firms in equipment supply and maintenance work and linking it to regional job creation. For the AI transformation of the shipbuilding industry, 1.406 trillion won will be invested across three hubs in Mokpo and Yeongam, Geoje and Busan, and Gunsan, with AI shipyard construction centered on major shipbuilders including HD Hyundai Samho, Samsung Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean. The automation of smaller shipbuilders that rely heavily on manual work was cited as a key task.
[Reference News for New Employees]
4. Microsoft Unveils Maia 300 In-House AI Chip
Key summary: Microsoft unveiled Maia 300, its third-generation in-house AI accelerator, and said full deployment will begin next year. Maia 300 carries 768 high-bandwidth memory units per rack, about 2.7 times the 288 in the previous model, while rack-level bandwidth surged to 1,728 terabytes per second from 341 terabytes. Microsoft, which lagged Google and Amazon in developing in-house chips, has also declared plans to build gigawatt-scale AI data center infrastructure, opening a new phase in the Big Tech race for AI dominance. The HBM supplier for Maia 300 was not disclosed, though the previous Maia 200 used SK hynix HBM.
5. 566.17 Billion Won Tied Up in Funeral Service Closures
Key summary: Advance payments held by 22 funeral service companies that have closed or had their registrations revoked over the past five years totaled 566.17 billion won. Four of the 22 failed to meet the legally required reserve ratio for advance payments of at least 50%, and six of 12 related violations resulted only in warnings. Subscribers to prepaid travel products surged 3.9-fold, from 60,000 in 2023 to 236,000 in March this year, yet the Fair Trade Commission has not conducted a single survey of the sector. Unpaid amounts whose statute of limitations expired after claimants missed the filing window alone reached 6.6 billion won, prompting calls to improve consumer protection across the prepaid installment transaction market.
6. Two New Keynesian Scholars Win Nobel Economics Prize
Key summary: Robert E. Hall, a professor at Stanford University, and Michael Woodford, a professor at Columbia University, were named winners of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics. Hall developed the random walk hypothesis, which holds that information about future income is reflected in current consumption, laying the theoretical groundwork for analyzing the consumption effects of tax cuts and subsidies. Woodford incorporated corporate price rigidity into macroeconomic models and established modern monetary policy theory centered on interest rate adjustments, which became the basis for central banks' forward guidance theory. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said the two scholars' work "brought a paradigm shift to the theory of economic stabilization policy."
