The 2026 El Niño is likely to become the strongest recorded since 1950, threatening Papua New Guinea and other Pacific nations with prolonged dry conditions, increased tropical cyclone activity and coral bleaching through early 2027, according to Dr Simon McGree, chair of the Pacific Regional Climate Centre Network, at an El Niño press conference at Lamana Hotel in Port Moresby.
Dr McGree said the climate event was already showing characteristics of a strong El Niño and was expected to continue through March to May 2027.
“The 2026 El Niño is very likely to exceed the strength of all previous El Niños recorded since 1950,” Dr McGree said.
He said below-normal rainfall had affected Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and other parts of the western Pacific over the past six months, with drier conditions likely to persist into April 2027.
The prolonged dry conditions could threaten water supplies, agriculture and livelihoods, while affecting fisheries, transport, infrastructure, health, education and tourism.
In contrast, wetter-than-normal conditions are expected to continue in parts of the central equatorial Pacific, including Nauru, Kiribati and Tokelau.
Dr McGree also warned of normal to above-normal tropical cyclone activity across parts of the southwest Pacific between November 2026 and April 2027, particularly near and east of the International Date Line.
The northwestern Pacific has already experienced an unusually active cyclone season, with 25 named storms reported at the time of the briefing.
Meanwhile, warmer sea surface temperatures are increasing the risk of heatwaves and coral bleaching around Nauru and Kiribati, as well as south of Papua New Guinea, across the Coral Sea and towards New Caledonia.
Dr McGree said climate change, growing coastal populations and limited water resources were increasing the vulnerability of Pacific communities.
“The risk to the population associated with a strong El Niño combined with higher populations and reduced resources or stagnant resources creates higher risk,” he said.
He warned that climate impacts could persist in some countries even after the El Niño event officially ended.
“Expect the unexpected in the case of the 2026-2027 El Niño,” Dr McGree said.