BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 3:08 p.m. ET · Source: Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), via Brazilian press reports
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Friday 16 October, Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) unanimously approved rules that define when a WhatsApp channel counts as part of a campaign.
- The rule Six criteria decide the link, and meeting just one of them can be enough, so campaigns must report such channels to the electoral courts.
- The trigger A court fight over “Exército do Lula” (Lula’s Army), a WhatsApp channel run by federal deputy André Janones, pushed the judges to act.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.7% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 3:04 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 76% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 24% and 23%), as of 16 October, 4:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The court has not said how the rules will apply to channels already running, including Lula’s Army.
Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) on Friday 16 October approved new rules, unanimously according to Poder360 and Jovem Pan, that decide when a WhatsApp channel belongs to a political campaign. The ruling arrives nine days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, and it came after a dispute over a pro-Lula channel.
With the race so close, the way campaigns use WhatsApp, where many Brazilians get their news, matters to the final stretch. Lula is Brazil’s president, and Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the conservative candidate.
What the New TSE Rules Say
The proposal was reported by Justice André Mendonça and changes Resolution 23.610 of 2019, which governs electoral advertising, according to Poder360. It sets out six criteria for deciding whether a channel is tied to a campaign, and the criteria do not all have to be met.
The criteria, as listed by Brasil 247, include campaign money used to run a channel, campaign staff or structure put to work on it, and invitation links promoted on a candidate’s official profiles. They also cover systematic steering of followers to official campaign pages through coordinated action, and campaign instructions on what to post and how often.
The text requires that the link be shown by an “objectively verifiable element”, Poder360 reported. Spontaneous support from voters or supporters is not enough on its own, according to Jovem Pan.
Reporting Duties and Penalties
Channels found to be linked to a campaign must be reported to the electoral courts for registration. Those running the channels and the campaigns behind them must make sure the content is lawful and the information accurate, Poder360 reported.
Repeated breaches can lead to a channel being made unavailable, without excluding other legal liability. Jovem Pan adds that the rules bar the use of such channels to spread fabricated or manipulated content that could harm the fairness of the vote.
Why the Court Acted Now
Lula’s Army, a WhatsApp channel run by federal deputy André Janones of the Rede party, was the subject of a clash of injunctions at the TSE in recent days, Poder360 said. The court’s president, Justice Kássio Nunes Marques, and Justice Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva took opposite sides.
The judges discussed the new rules on Thursday 15 October at the court in Brasília. Mendonça wrote in his vote that the change was the product of consensus among the court’s members, according to Poder360.
What It Means for US Readers
WhatsApp, owned by US company Meta, is the main way many Brazilians receive campaign messages, so a court deciding what counts as a campaign channel shapes how the final days are fought. For investors and anyone following the vote, the main effect is on how both camps broadcast, not on the polls directly.
If a channel is ruled to be part of a campaign, the candidate answers for what it posts. That raises the stakes for both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in the days before 25 October.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.7% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 3:04 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.8 million in bets, as shown in our Brazil election odds.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.3% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 23%
As of 16 October, 4:20 pm ET (21:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The court has not said how the rules will apply to channels that were already running, including Lula’s Army. We have not seen the final text on the TSE website, so the criteria above come from Brazilian press reports of the decision.
It is also unclear how many other campaign channels will be reported, or whether any will be taken down before the vote.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What new WhatsApp rules did Brazil’s electoral court approve?
On Friday 16 October the TSE unanimously approved rules that set six criteria for deciding when a WhatsApp channel is linked to a campaign. Meeting just one criterion can be enough.
Why did the TSE act on WhatsApp channels?
The court acted after a clash of injunctions over “Exército do Lula”, a channel run by federal deputy André Janones. The new text sets objective tests for such cases.
Does voter support alone make a channel part of a campaign?
No. Spontaneous support from voters or supporters is not enough on its own to show a link, according to Jovem Pan’s report on the text.
What happens to channels that break the rules?
Campaigns must report linked channels for registration. Repeated breaches can lead to a channel being made unavailable.
When is Brazil’s runoff election?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October in a runoff between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner takes office as president.
Sources: Poder360, 16 October 2026; Jovem Pan, 16 October 2026; Brasil 247, 16 October 2026; Agora Litoral, 16 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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