There is speculation Andy Burnham will call a general election after Labour’s victory in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election - but polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice thinks the idea would be unpopular amongst the party.
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice says it is very unlikely Labour will call an early general election after their victory in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
Last week Labour managed to hold onto the Labour seat vacated by former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer, despite a challenge from Green leader Zack Polanski.
This has sparked questions on whether Prime Minister Andy Burnham will call an early general election to try and secure his own mandate - however Sir John says there is no “obvious attraction” for the Prime Minister to do this.
Speaking to BBC The Sunday Show, Sir John said: “If he were tempted, the advice would be to put the devil behind him.
“There were four mega-polls ahead of the Labour party conference which modelled the data in every constituency. They varied a bit, but they all put Labour well short of an overall majority with around 250 seats on average.
“Not even with the support of the Lib Dems would they have an overall majority.
“With Andy Burnham as Prime Minister, Labour MPs are looking to him to maintain their parliamentary careers, so they would not look forward to an early general election, particularly one where 150 of them would lose their parliamentary seats, and particularly when there are still three years of this parliament with a substantial majority to run.
“It would leave the party deeply fragmented and struggling to command a legislative agenda.
“That doesn’t look like an attractive prospect.
“It does look like the Labour vote has edged up, and if indeed Labour is in a commanding position he might be tempted, but at the moment the idea of holding an early general election doesn’t have any obvious attraction for the Prime Minister.”
Labour has held the Holborn and St Pancras seat ever since it was created back in 1983, and is therefore consistently seen as a safe Labour seat.
Sir John added: “This by-election tells us about the battle between Labour and the Greens and their respective standings.
“Holborn and St Pancras confirms what opinion polls tell us has been happening over the past six months.
“In the London borough elections the Greens did well, but not well enough to overtake Labour. They got around 36 per cent with Labour narrowly ahead on 39 per cent, so you can see why this was a constituency Zack Polanski thought he could enter the House of Commons with.
“We got Labour on 45 per cent, which is six points up on the beginning of May, but still four points down compared to what they achieved in the general election locally, and that in itself was low because Keir Starmer’s support fell by 18 points, as did the Labour vote in many constituencies with Muslim populations.”