We are now just a couple of days out from the B.C. provincial election, and if the polls are correct, it will be a tight race between the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives — particularly in some key ridings.
According to a recent poll from Angus Reid, it is a “statistical tie” between the two major parties. Another from Mainstreet Research found that the BC Greens were at 14.6 per cent, the BC Conservatives at 41.7 per cent, and the BC NDP at 36 per cent — though it cautioned that this could be “ballot confusion.”
After a number of incumbent mayors lost their title in the Oct. 17 civic elections, Stewart Prest, a political science professor at the University of British Columbia, said that this provides a “clear sense that people are not happy with the status quo.”
“They are not simply going to vote for the party and the politicians that they did last time. There’s no sign of an automatic loyalty card here.”
He pointed out that Vancouver’s mayor-elect, Pete Fry, ran on optimism and “actually liking the place that he was campaigning to lead.”
“To be honest, neither of the leading parties at the provincial level have really communicated that message. So whoever can really capture that energy in the closing week, I think will have a strong chance to come out on top because it is still very close between the two parties.”
Ridings to watch
Prest said the ridings he’s most interested in on election night are “anywhere the urban core meets the more suburban and rural parts of the city.”
“These are areas where we see some of the sensibilities of an urban or kind of coastal form of politics that run up against people who live in environments more tied to the resource sector, more concerned with, say, the state of property values,” he said.
And — as it was in the 2024 provincial election — ridings in Surrey will be ones to watch. Both the BC NDP and Conservatives seem to be keenly aware of this, as they have been campaigning in Surrey to try and earn their votes.
For example, after Surrey elected Doug McCallum as its new mayor on Saturday night, both the BC NDP and Conservatives have promised to extend the SkyTrain to Newton, one of the mayor-elect’s key campaign promises.
“We have seen David Eby say he’s really open to all the ideas that Doug McCallum has, and I think that’s an indicator that he really needs the people who voted for Doug McCallum to also vote for the NDP,” Prest said.
In the 2024 provincial election, the importance of the Surrey vote became particularly prominent. While they had been BC NDP orange since the 2017 provincial election, a number turned Conservative blue in 2024.
Conservatives secured six out of 10 Surrey ridings in 2024, including Surrey North, Surrey South, Surrey-Cloverdale, Surrey-Panorama, Surrey-Serpentine River, and Surrey-White Rock.
The BC NDP won four ridings: Surrey-Fleetwood, Surrey-Newton, Surrey-City Centre, and Surrey-Guildford,
Some of the ridings were incredibly close. In Surrey-Guildford, the BC NDP candidate won with 8,947 votes, just 22 ahead of the Conservatives’ candidate, who got 8,925.
Kelowna Centre is another riding that saw a close tie in 2024, with the BC NDP candidate earning 42.69 per cent of the votes and the Conservative Party earning 42.85 per cent — coming down to just 40 votes between the two.
Other tight ridings in 2024 included: Langley-Willowbrook, Langley-Walnut Grove, Maple Ridge East, and Richmond-Queensborough.
On Vancouver Island, Prest said that Courtenay-Comox and North Island are additional ridings to watch. In 2024, the Conservatives won the seat, but only by 93 votes. In the North Island, the Conservatives won with 14,100 votes, while the BC NDP garnered 13,461 and the BC Greens got 2,397.
‘Bellwether riding’
Prest expects the BC NDP to hold onto ridings in the Tri-Cities (New Westminster-Coquitlam, Port Moody-Burquitlam, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Coquitlam-Maillardville, and Port Coquitlam).
But support for the NDP is much softer in these ridings.
“If things really go well for the Conservatives in ridings like that, then the Conservatives are going to win. So they are, in that sense, bellwether riding[s].”
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