The biggest upset of the NFL season, in terms of point spread, came in Week 6.
The Los Angeles Rams lost straight up as a 12.5-point favorite to the Arizona Cardinals. Since the start of the 2023 season it's just the third time a favorite of 12.5 points or more has lost. The other two times came when the Titans beat the Dolphins, who were 13.5 point favorites, during the 2023 season and when the Packers lost as 13-point favorites to the Panthers last season. The Rams loss had major ramifications across the odds, not just for the upcoming week but in the Super Bowl market.
Here are the betting storylines for Week 7 of the NFL season:
Rams-Raiders line shifts
There is a lot less confidence in the Rams after the loss to the Cardinals.
The Rams are just a 4.5-point favorite at the Las Vegas Raiders for Week 7. The lookahead line last week, before Week 6 kicked off, was Rams -7 according to 4for4.com. Injuries to receiver Davante Adams and defensive lineman Kobie Turner also affected the line, but those injuries wouldn't normally move a point spread 2.5 points. And while the Raiders had a backdoor cover against the Bills on Sunday, their performance isn't why the line moved either.
It's just getting harder to trust the 2-4 Rams after Sunday.
New Super Bowl odds
The Rams were 2-3 last week but were still either favored to win the Super Bowl or their odds were tied with the Bills for the top spot. Finally, that has changed.
The Rams moved down to fifth in the Super Bowl odds. Here are BetMGM's odds after Week 6:
49ers +550
Bills +700
Chiefs +800
Ravens +1000
Rams +1200
While it's still odd to see a 2-4 team with the fifth-best Super Bowl odds, it's still a significant shift from +700 last week.
Chargers still haven't covered
The Chargers are a stunning 0-6 this season, and they hold a dubious dishonor as the final team in the NFL that hasn't covered the spread.
They're either 0-6 ATS or 0-5-1, depending on if their Week 4 loss to the Seahawks was scored as a push or a half-point loss.
The Los Angeles Chargers remain only NFL team still winless against the spread this season (0-5-1 ATS or 0-6 ATS, depending on Seattle Week 4 number)
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) October 18, 2026
The Chargers have a bye, but it's not like it will get much better for them considering some of their injury issues and overall poor play. But covering the spread soon shouldn't be too much to ask. Their first game after the bye? It's against the reeling Rams.
An early two-man race for MVP?
Josh Allen and Brock Purdy are distancing themselves in the MVP odds. After Purdy's impressive performance on Monday night and Allen helping the Bills to a win over the Raiders, they were atop the MVP odds board. Allen was +190 to win and Purdy was right behind at +225. Patrick Mahomes was well back of them at +900 and nobody else was +1100. For all the chatter that perhaps Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III should be included in the MVP conversation, he's still way back at 80-to-1. That's tied for 15th on the list, and 13 of the 14 players ahead of Walker are quarterbacks (Jahmyr Gibbs, at 66-to-1, is the only non-quarterback ahead of Walker).
There are many weeks for other quarterbacks to get in the MVP race. But after six weeks, everyone is chasing Allen and Purdy.
Chiefs are underdogs
The Chiefs' 5-0 start has been a bit overlooked, at least in terms of the buzz you'd expect from a Kansas City team being one of three remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. The Chiefs aren't even favored against a 3-3 team for Week 7.
It's not your typical .500 team, of course. The Chiefs play at the Seahawks next Sunday night. Seattle is -2.5 against Kansas City. The Seahawks offense has had its issues, including Sam Darnold's interceptions, but the defense is still excellent. It will be a good test for the Chiefs. If they win that, the buzz on them should increase.