ELECTIONS 2026 · BRAZIL
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, chooses between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- —Why it matters The winner will set Brazil’s course on trade, security and relations with Washington for the next four years.
- —Why now Quaest released its first national poll of the runoff on Wednesday 14 October, 11 days before the vote.
- —What happened The Quaest poll gives Flávio 46% and Lula 44%, a statistical tie within the two-point margin of error.
- —The numbers Quaest interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 or over from 10 to 13 October; 9% plan a blank or spoiled vote or will not vote.
- —What it means for you A tight race keeps Brazil’s currency and shares sensitive to each new poll until the 25 October vote.
- —Still open Whether Datafolha’s poll on Thursday and Sunday’s televised debate confirm the tie or shift the race.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 85% chance of winning the presidency (14 October, 5:31 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 85% and Kalshi at 84% (Lula: 15% and 15%), as of 14 October, 5:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
The first Quaest poll of Brazil’s presidential runoff, released on Wednesday 14 October, puts Flávio Bolsonaro on 46% and Lula on 44%. The gap sits inside the margin of error of two points, so the race is a statistical tie.
For US investors and companies, the result means 11 more days of uncertainty over who will run Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil’s currency and shares have traded on runoff polls all week, and the next one arrives on Thursday.
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for the conservative Liberal Party (PL) and the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the president, seeking a fourth term for the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT).
What the Quaest Poll Shows
Besides the 46% for Flávio and 44% for Lula, 1% of voters said they were undecided, G1 reported. Another 9% said they would cast a blank or spoiled ballot or would not vote at all.
Most voters have made up their minds, as 91% called their choice final and 9% said they could still change it. Rejection is high on both sides, with 54% saying they would never vote for Flávio and 53% for Lula.
When voters named a candidate without seeing a list, 43% chose Flávio and 42% chose Lula. In that spontaneous question, 8% picked a blank or spoiled vote and 7% were undecided.
Quaest interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 or over between Saturday 10 and Tuesday 13 October, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-08729/2026, Correio Braziliense reported.
Globo and the newspaper O Globo commissioned the poll, G1 reported, and Correio Braziliense put its cost at R$338,178 (about US$67,000). Dollar figures use the Central Bank’s PTAX selling rate of R$5.0441 per dollar on 14 October.
Where First-Round Votes Are Going
Flávio won the 4 October first round with 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16%, about 2.2 million votes apart, G1 reported. The new poll suggests that small lead has held into the runoff.
Among voters who backed first-round candidate Ronaldo Caiado, 42% now pick Flávio and 23% pick Lula. Supporters of candidate Renan Santos split 40% for Flávio and 14% for Lula, while many plan a blank vote.
Lula does better with backers of candidate Augusto Cury, winning 34% to Flávio’s 30%. He also leads by 43% to 38% among people who skipped the first round or spoiled their ballot.
Backers of Caiado, Santos and Cury each make up about 2% of the sample, Quaest found. In a two-point race, those small groups and the abstainers still matter.
Lula’s Approval and the Issues
Disapproval of Lula’s government stands at 48%, against 45% approval, a one-point improvement on Quaest’s previous survey. Some 40% rate the government negatively, 34% positively and 24% as regular.
Of nine proposals Quaest tested, banning betting sites, ending the 6×1 work week and lowering the age of criminal liability ranked highest. The Senate was debating the end of the six-day work week on Wednesday evening.
What It Means for You
The real weakened on Wednesday, with the Central Bank’s PTAX rate rising to R$5.0441 per dollar from R$5.0096 per dollar on Tuesday. G1 linked the move to US inflation data and to the election polls.
For US investors in Brazilian shares or bonds, a tie means each new survey can move prices until 25 October. For companies, both candidates’ plans on taxes, security and trade remain live possibilities.
Datafolha publishes its next runoff poll on Thursday 15 October, O Povo reported. Flávio said on Wednesday that he will attend Sunday’s televised debate after Lula confirmed his place.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro an 85% chance of winning the presidency and Lula 14.5%, as of 5:31 p.m. ET on 14 October. The Flávio contract slipped about one point over the previous day.
The main Brazil election market has drawn about US$181.7 million in bets, including about US$805,000 in the past 24 hours. These are real-money bets, not polls, and they price Flávio far more clearly ahead than the Quaest tie suggests.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 85% · Lula 14.5% (US$182 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 84% · Lula 15%
As of 14 October, 5:20 pm ET (22:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the tie will hold, because Quaest’s fieldwork ended on Tuesday 13 October. Thursday’s Datafolha survey will be the first chance to compare.
Turnout is the largest unknown, since abstainers and blank voters lean slightly towards Lula in this poll. Polls cannot say how many of them will actually vote on 25 October.
For background, read Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio on 25 October and Brazil Runoff Polls 2026: Every Lula vs Flávio Survey. For context, see Who Dominates Brazil, Elites and Regions Explained and our Brasília city page.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Quaest poll show?
It shows Flávio Bolsonaro on 46% and Lula on 44% in the 25 October runoff. The margin of error is two points, so the race is a statistical tie.
When was the Quaest poll conducted?
Quaest interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 or over from 10 to 13 October. The poll was released on Wednesday 14 October.
Who won the first round?
Flávio Bolsonaro finished first on 4 October with 47.03% of valid votes to Lula’s 45.16%. Neither reached a majority, which forced the runoff.
When is the next poll?
Datafolha publishes its next runoff poll on Thursday 15 October. More surveys are expected before the vote on Sunday 25 October.
What do prediction markets say?
Polymarket bettors give Flávio an 85% chance of winning, as of 14 October. Markets reflect real-money bets, not voter surveys.
Sources: G1, Quaest runoff poll, 14 October; Correio Braziliense, 14 October; G1, Quaest proposals, 14 October; G1, markets, 14 October; O Povo, poll schedule, 14 October; Central Bank of Brazil, PTAX rates.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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