Kenya CEO Survey Shows 45.5% See More Growth

KENYA · ECONOMY

The Kenya CEO survey, published by the Central Bank of Kenya on Tuesday 20 October, shows business leaders more upbeat about the next 12 months. Of the chief executives asked, 45.5% expect higher growth for their own company, up from 43.3% in July.

For US investors, exporters and visitors, the Kenya CEO survey shows how firms see demand, borrowing costs and Middle East risks. Most firms said they have little direct exposure to US trade policy, though tariffs could raise import costs.

What the CEOs Said About Growth

The Central Bank of Kenya, the country’s monetary authority, sent its questionnaire to the chief executives of 600 private firms between 7 and 18 September. Tourism, hotels and restaurants made up 20 percent of the respondents, and wholesale and retail trade 17 percent.

Asked about their own company, 45.5% of CEOs expect higher growth, 42.7% expect it to stay the same and 11.9% expect lower growth. In July the split was 43.3% higher, 41.3% the same and 15.4% lower.

How Executives See the Kenyan Economy

On the Kenyan economy as a whole, 28.4% of CEOs expect higher growth, 40.3% expect no change and 31.3% expect lower growth. In July, 23.8% had expected higher growth and 29.7% lower growth.

Respondents pointed to steady domestic demand, higher orders, seasonal spending, more tourists, lower borrowing costs and a stable exchange rate. They also named costly fuel and transport, squeezed household incomes, bad weather and weaker outside demand as downside risks.

Costs, Credit and the Middle East

The Kenya CEO survey lists the high cost of doing business, elevated energy prices and Middle East tension as the main limits on growth. Fewer CEOs than in July expect a high impact from Middle East developments or from US trade policy.

Most respondents reported falling lending rates, but collateral demands, slow approvals and cautious banks still limit access to credit. In the third quarter, 30.2% rated access to bank financing as easy or very easy, 43.1% as moderate and 26.7% as difficult or very difficult.

What Firms Expect for the Festive Season

Orders and sales improved in the third quarter, while production and jobs stayed broadly stable and the prices firms pay for inputs rose. Most firms expect orders and sales to rise again in the fourth quarter, with seasonal demand around the festive season.

Competition is keeping selling prices steady, so firms expect to absorb more of the higher costs themselves. Most firms said they operate below capacity, and 37.2% said they could meet a sudden jump in demand without difficulty.

What the Companion Bank Survey Found

A second central bank survey, the Market Perceptions Survey of banks and firms, was published the same day. Its respondents expect inflation to stay above 5 percent but within the target range over the next three months.

Banks in that survey projected private sector credit growth of 11.2% by the end of 2026, up from 9.9% in the July survey. Inflation stood at 6.8% in September, and the Monetary Policy Committee kept its Central Bank Rate at 8.75% on 7 October.

What It Means for US Readers

The Kenya CEO survey points to falling borrowing costs and firmer confidence, which support demand for goods and services that US companies sell in Kenya. Tourism firms, which were 20 percent of respondents, expect more domestic and international visitors, including diaspora holiday arrivals.

Investors tracking Kenyan assets can read the Kenya CEO survey beside the central bank’s 8.75% rate decision and the 6.8% September inflation reading. Rio Times also covered the 5.1% second-quarter growth figure.

What Is Not Known

How many of the 600 CEOs approached took part in the Kenya CEO survey has not been published. The answers come mostly from domestically owned firms, which were 79 percent of respondents, so they are not a full picture of the economy.

Whether the better mood turns into hiring, investment or new bank lending before the end of the year is open. The Middle East conflict and fuel prices could still shift the outlook before the Monetary Policy Committee, the central bank’s rate-setting panel, meets again.

More: Kenya news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Kenya CEO survey?

The Kenya CEO survey is a poll in which the central bank asks private-sector chief executives about confidence, activity and risks every two months. It comes before each Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The September 2026 round ran from 7 to 18 September.

How many Kenyan CEOs expect higher growth?

In the September round, 45.5% expect higher growth for their own company and 28.4% expect higher growth for the Kenyan economy. In July the figures were 43.3% and 23.8%.

What are the main risks the CEOs named?

They named the high cost of doing business, elevated energy prices and tension in the Middle East. Pressure on household incomes and bad weather were also cited.

Does US trade policy hurt Kenyan firms?

Most firms reported limited direct exposure to US trade policy, the survey says. Tariffs could still raise import costs and disrupt supply chains.

What is Kenya’s central bank interest rate?

The Central Bank Rate is 8.75%, kept unchanged by the Monetary Policy Committee on 7 October 2026. Inflation was 6.8% in September.

Sources: Central Bank of Kenya, CEOs Survey of September 2026, 20 October 2026; Central Bank of Kenya, Market Perceptions Survey of September 2026, 20 October 2026; Central Bank of Kenya, MPC retains the CBR at 8.75 percent, 7 October 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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