The Fall Classic has arrived. On Friday night, the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays will kick off their final quest for a World Series title. One of two teams who have never claimed a title will be hoisting their first-ever trophy.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are not far from what either of these teams are: smaller-market teams without exceptionally deep pockets and only a modicum of postseason achievements on their resume.
Here are three lessons the Diamondbacks should learn from watvhing these two clubs in the World Series.
Rotation matters most
It's not a coincidence that the two teams in the World Series this season are among the best in starter ERA.
The Brewers, behind a dominant season from ace Jacob Misiorowski, posted a 3.61 ERA in the regular season from their starting rotation. That was the the fifth-best figure in baseball.
The Rays were even better. Their rotation, led by Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez, produced a 3.51 regular-season ERA, the third-best in baseball. Freddy Peralta, their deadline acquisition, won ALCS MVP and has put up a 1.08 ERA this postseason.
The other two teams in the final four were of similar makeup. The Dodgers and their second-best 3.43 rotation ERA were thwarted by Milwaukee in the NLCS and the Guardians — sporting a ninth-best 3.93 starter ERA — fell to the Rays.
The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, had the 19th-best starter ERA. Outside of Eduardo Rodriguez and strong half-seasons from Michael Soroka and Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona's starters were injury-riddled, inefficient and ineffective for much of the season.
For as good as the D-backs' bullpen and defensive run-prevention efforts may have been, it's a truly difficult task to march through October without a consistently dominant rotation — or at least three high-end starters.
Simply put, Arizona needs to invest in that area of the roster, or begin churning out home-grown pitching talent at a higher clip. Misiorowskis and Rasmussens don't grow on trees, but what the D-backs had this year just wasn't good enough.
Payroll isn't everything
Once the threat of a third-straight Dodger title was removed, the conversations regarding payrolls began to shift.
According to Spotrac, the Brewers and Rays both sit in the lower half of MLB in total payroll. The Brewers rank 19th while the Rays rank 28th. Cleveland ranked dead last and took Tampa Bay to a game six.
The Dodgers were the only team in this playoff picture to make a deep run with an upper-half total payroll. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, ranked 12th this season and are expected to see somewhat of a reduction in payroll next year.
Clearly, at least some type of measure needs to be taken regarding Los Angeles' spending habits — I'm not going to get into the salary cap debate in this article. But three of the final four teams have laid a blueprint that looks a bit different from mainstream payroll assumptions.
Spending money wisely is important, especially to smaller-market teams. But the emphasis point of that sentence should be on "wisely," not "spending."
Home-grown talent matters. Coaching matters. Analytics (yes, that scary word) matter. Player development matters — perhaps even more so than dropping tens of millions on stars.
The little things
What immediately comes to mind when thinking about a potential World Series team? Probably a dominant ace or two (as discussed above). Also, probably a good deal of power, some star-level hitters and maybe an elite closer.
Sure, these two teams have those things. But their playoff longevity mirrored the same principles that allowed them to rack up 100-plus wins apiece in the regular season: consistently doing the little things.
And, to be honest, this is a good thing for the Diamondbacks.
Both of the two World Series teams hit under 170 homers, which put them in the bottom third this regular season. The Brewers ranked 28th with 154 and the Rays 22nd with 169. Arizona placed 25th with 166. However, they ranked 11th (Brewers) and 15th (Rays) in slugging percentage. The D-backs ranked 15th despite their lack of long balls.
Meanwhile, defense and baserunning took over. Small-ball was prevalent all year.
The Brewers and Rays both pitch well, certainly, but they also both finished top-five in Defensive Runs Saved. Milwaukee placed third at +55 and Tampa Bay ranked fifth with +33. Arizona placed seventh with +26. All three teams sat in the top half of Fielding Run Value, as well.
As far as baserunning is concerned, the Brewers and Rays both ranked in the top 10 of Baserunning Run Value this season. The Diamondbacks placed second, though much of that production was solely the responsibility of Corbin Carroll.
The point is, Arizona is mostly there in the process of playing this type of sustainable baseball. The Brewers and Rays are proof it can work long enough to go the distance.
But Arizona also has to find a way to get more out of its in-house talent and bolster their rotation if they want to complete the assignment in the future.
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