Australia’s fuel security has come under renewed scrutiny after an industry expert warned official reserve figures may overstate the amount of fuel immediately available for use.
Diesel import prices also remain more than double their levels at the start of the year.
New Argus Media pricing data shows the assessed price of diesel delivered to Australia’s east coast climbed from $US83.27 per barrel on January 2 to $US191.64 per barrel on October 21, an increase of about 130 per cent.
The price reached $US284.64 per barrel on April 2 before retreating but remains substantially above pre-war levels.
Argus Media senior reporter Tom Woodlock said Australians had reason to be concerned about the country’s reliance on imported fuel, although an immediate jet fuel shortage was unlikely.
“Australians should be concerned about fuel security in a structural sense but not alarmed about an immediate shortage of jet fuel,” he said.
“Australia remains heavily reliant on imported refined fuels, including jet fuel, and typically holds lower inventories than many other OECD countries.”
The warning comes after Energy Minister Chris Bowen reported Australia held 28 days of jet fuel, 33 days of diesel and 41 days of petrol as at October 17.
Mr Bowen said 48 ships were on their way to Australia carrying fuel, with 3.2 billion litres secured for delivery over the following four weeks.
He maintained Australia’s fuel security remained solid despite international uncertainty.
However, Mr Woodlock said the government’s headline stockholding figures did not necessarily reflect supplies immediately available to consumers.
“Official stockholding data provides a useful indication of total fuel held by industry, but it does not always equate to fuel that is immediately available for consumption,” he said.
“The official DCCEEW (Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water) stockholding figures shows stocks of fuels in-country and also within Australia’s exclusive economic zone.”
He said the distinction meant reported stocks could overstate the amount practically available during a disruption.
Independent Crude Oil Peak analysis has also raised questions about Australia’s incoming fuel supplies.
The analysis estimated petrol and jet fuel deliveries could decline by about 25 per cent compared with June, based on government statements about total fuel deliveries and diesel imports.
However, the projection relies on assumptions about the composition of incoming shipments and does not establish an actual shortfall in jet fuel supply.
Mr Woodlock said Australia’s dependence on overseas refineries left it exposed to shipping disruptions and geopolitical instability, although diversified import sources helped reduce the risk.
“Most jet fuel, diesel and gasoline supplies are sourced from refineries across Asia, particularly northeast and southeast Asia,” he said.
“Any disruption affecting shipping lanes, refinery operations, freight availability or geopolitical stability can have flow-on impacts for Australian fuel supply.”
Despite those vulnerabilities, Mr Woodlock said the Asia-Pacific fuel market remained relatively well supplied, with South Korea and China continuing to export substantial volumes.
“Further price volatility is a more realistic risk than widespread aviation disruptions,” he said.
“While a severe shortage is not the base-case scenario, it cannot be completely ruled out if multiple supply disruptions occur simultaneously.”
The government has previously outlined plans for a one-billion-litre strategic fuel reserve and additional private-sector stockholding requirements aimed at strengthening Australia’s long-term fuel security.