Welcome to Week 7! Week 6 was lowest scoring week of the season so far. Across the land, fantasy players kept refreshing their devices all day Sunday, to no avail. No player hit 30 fantasy points in Half PPR for the first time since Week 6 of the 2024 season (excluding Week 18). Only four players topped 25 points. I guess this is what we should expect when the Lions and Bengals are on a Bye.
Unusually low fantasy scoring wasn’t the only anomaly in Week 6. The Colts outgained the previously winless Titans by 213 yards and lost. The Ravens held the Browns to three points through 50 minutes and lost. The Rams kept the Cardinals out of the end zone and lost. The Saints scored 34 straight points, pulled some of their starters, and were in real danger of losing.
But wait, there’s more! The four NFC East teams went winless for the second straight week – something that has never happened, for any division, since the AFL-NFL merger (there are intra-division games almost every week, so that’s not quite as crazy as it sounds).
And more craziness — Myles Garrett left the Browns for the Rams this past offseason – the NFL’s premiere pass rusher would finally get to play on a Super Bowl contender! Well, guess what? The 4-2 Browns are in first place, while the 2-4 Rams are in last.
Will normal scoring return in Week 7? Fantasy managers certainly hope so.
Stats of the Week:
- Every team in the AFC North and NFC North is over .500.
2. Kenneth WalkerIII has 665 rushing yards in his first five games with Kansas City – that’s the most for any player in his first five games on a team in NFL history.
3. Patrick Mahomes got his 100th win in his 131st start, tying Tom Brady for the fastest to 100 QB wins in NFL history.
4. The Cardinals have more wins at SoFi Stadium this season (2) than the Rams and Chargers combined.
5. The 2-4 Rams have outgained their opponents by 644 yards this season, the widest margin in the NFL.
6. Since Aaron Glenn became Head Coach of the Jets at the start of the 2025 season, his team has been outscored 97-6 in the final two minutes of the first half.
7. You can’t make it up: The Chargers are 0-6 to start a season for the first time since 2000. 37 year-old Jim Harbaugh started the first five games at QB for the Chargers in 2000.
And with that…let’s get to week 7.
Note: The PIT@NO game is in Paris – reveillez-vous, and set those lineups early!
Bye Weeks: BUF, JAC, LAC, WAS
Week 7 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Jaxon Smith-Njigba. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade, and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
Last week, my Rides, Fades, and Sleepers did well, with more hits than misses. You can check my work here.
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Ride of the Week: Tucker Kraft (@DET). Kraft only has one TD on the season and is averaging just 7.3 fantasy points per game (FPPG), so you might be surprised to see this choice. He did see eight targets last week, and that’s encouraging. Green Bay’s offense is mainly flowing through Matthew Golden and Christian Watson, but there’s room for Kraft. I think he’ll show up this week against the Lions, in what should be a high-scoring divisional tilt. Detroit has yielded nine TDs to opposing tight ends in just five games, and the most FPPG to the position. They’ve also allowed the most catches and yards to TEs even though most teams have played six games to their five. The return of safety Brian Branch should help, but the Lions’ defense hasn’t stopped anyone. Don’t overthink it – Jordan Love is dealing, the offense should be more efficient with Josh Jacobs returning, and the Packers’ passing game is in a smash spot this week. Play them all.
Fade of the Week: Patrick Mahomes (@SEA). The Chiefs are undefeated, but Mahomes hasn’t exactly been lighting it up for fantasy, and I doubt that changes in the Ken Walker revenge game. Mahomes hasn’t topped 17 fantasy points in any of his last three games after a fast start, and the injuries to his receivers haven’t helped. The Seahawks need this game badly and their defense is allowing the fewest passing yards and third fewest FPPG to opposing QBs. I hate betting against Mahomes, and with the Byes and injuries you might not have a better option, but temper expectations on the road against Mike McDonald’s defense.
Sleeper of the Week: Kyler Murray (vs. IND). Murray is ranked just outside the Top-12 QBs this week and with several prominent QBs out and a favorable home matchup on tap, I think that’s too low. Murray has been disappointing but he’s coming off his best effort of the season (18 fantasy points) and importantly, for the first time this year he looked comfortable taking off from the pocket. That translated to 10 carries for 51 yards against the Saints. It might not be the Kyler of old, but for those who were all over Kyler as a sleeper in the preseason (I was not in that crowd), it’s a good sign. The Vikings are rolling and the Colts (who fired GM Chris Ballard earlier this week) are reeling. Murray is rested off the Bye and should have plenty of success against a subpar defense that likely will be without top corner Sauce Gardner. He’s a QB1 for me this week.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Brock Purdy and Drake Maye; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Jordan Love (@DET) and Jared Goff (vs. GB). Play what you can in this big divisional game, which has the highest Vegas total of the week (53.5). Both QBs come in hot, and because the Lions can’t stop anyone, they’re playing shootout after shootout. Goff is the QB3 on the season, while Love clocks in at QB10. Love has accounted for two TDs in every start so far this season and but for some horrible drops from his receivers he could’ve had four or five this past Sunday night against Dallas. I could bore you with more stats but just trust me on this. Both QBs are Top-5 plays this week.
Others ranked in the Top-15 this week who I think will outperform their ranking: Joe Burrow (@BAL, based in large part on history as the last six meetings between these two teams have averaged almost 54 points), the red-hot C.J. Stroud (vs. NYG) and the orange-hot Aaron Rodgers (@NO, who allow almost 30 points per game).
Sleepers:
Geno Smith (vs. MIA) has a good matchup this week (seventh most FPPG allowed to opposing QBs) and he’s been slowly getting some of his weapons back, including Omar Cooper, Jr. with a big contribution last week. He’s a pretty safe floor play if you need him.
If you need a second QB in a Superflex, or a streamer for someone who is hurt or on a Bye, there are some OK options, including Tanner McKee (vs DAL; I’m not much of a believer but guys, it’s Dallas), and Michael Penix, Jr. (vs. SF).
Fades:
I just can’t do it, Bo Nix (@ARI). It’s a great matchup (fourth most FPPG allowed to opposing QBs), but he’s been SO BAD. When a QB throws for less than 125 yards in back-to-back starts, he’s a very tough click. He’s also not running (less than ten fantasy points, total, from rushing through six games), and that’s been a big component of his fantasy value in the past.
It’s tough to sit Tyler Shough (v. PIT) after he finished as the QB2 last week, but he’s not at “auto-start” status and is somewhat matchup-dependent. He had a good Week 6 matchup. Minnesota stymied him the week before and I think the Steelers will also pose problems this week. They’re allowing the third fewest FPPG to opposing QBs and have yielded just six total TDs to the position in six games.
If for some reason you’re thinking about starting either Daniel Jones (@MIN) or Sam Darnold (vs KC) as a second QB this week, maybe this fantasy football thing isn’t for you. Both are struggling, and on top of that, Minnesota and K.C. are fantasy kryptonite for opposing QBs this season. They’re the two worst matchups, at 9.0 and 13.0 FPPG allowed to the position, respectively.
Others: More lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week include Jacoby Brissett (vs. DEN) and J.J. McCarthy (@HOU). The Texans’ vaunted defense has been a major disappointment, but with the personnel they’ve got it has to come around at some point, and I’m pretty scared of trusting Nine or 18 or whatever he wants to call himself, regardless of his fourth quarter output last week.
Running back:
Elite options this week – Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, and Derrick Henry; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Three backs in absolute smash spots this week:
Kyren Williams (@LV). And the beat goes on…It’s a good matchup against a Bottom-10 defense vs. the position, and with Davante Adams out I think he’ll be busier than usual as both a ball carrier and receiver. As it is, he leads all running backs with 30 receptions.
Braelon Allen (vs MIA). It hasn’t been great every week with Breece Hall out, but it should be this week, against the NFL’s second most generous defense to the position. Negative game scripts week after week is a big part of Miami’s struggles vs. RBs, and I think even the Jets can get out in front of the ‘Fins early.
Jaylen Warren (@NO). Yeah, I didn’t t love the split with the returning Rico Dowdle, but he still got the majority of the work and especially when the game was on the line. The Saints have allowed the most rushing yards, rushing TDs (11), and FPPG to opposing RBs. The very talented Warren should get his.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think will outperform their rankings are Bucky Irving (@CAR), Woody Marks (vs. NYG), Ollie Gordon (@NYJ), and Aaron Jones, Sr. (vs. IND, although a possible return by Jordan Mason complicates things – if he’s back I think both are flex-worthy.
Sleepers:
A few to consider if you’re stuck: Roschon Johnson (vs. NE – he’s getting almost half the work), Rico Dowdle (@NO), and Blake Corum (@LV).
Fades:
You aren’t benching Jonathan Taylor (@MIN), and I’m not recommending that. This is more of a public service announcement. Manage your expectations for him against that nasty purple defense. The Vikings have yielded the second fewest rushing yards and total TDs (2), the fewest receptions, and the fewest FPPG to opposing RBs, and historically speaking, Taylor’s numbers go way down when the Colts are playing catch-up. The Vikings are rested off a Bye and favored by a touchdown — it could be a very long day for Taylor and Indy.
In each of the last two games, Ashton Jeanty was given only ten caries, and he turned that into less than 30 yards both weeks. Receiving work (26 catches) is the only thing keeping him off fantasy benches and weekly rants. He hasn’t cracked 13 fantasy points in five straight games. The Rams have allowed just two total TDs to opposing RBs, tied for second best behind only the Browns. Maybe the ankle is still bothering him, but he’s at best a low-end RB2 and really more of a Flex option at this point.
Josh Jacobs (@DET) carries some risk this week. I don’t know that he’ll immediately walk into his usual workhorse role right off the bat, after just a week of practice and conditioning with the team. It’s an excellent matchup, and the other backs have been underwhelming, but I’d consider waiting a week if I had other options.
Other RB Fades: TreVeyon Henderson (@CHI, he hasn’t topped five fantasy points in any of the last four games, and truth be told I don’t feel confident starting any Patriot RBs right now), Emanuel Wilson and Zach Charbonnet (vs. KC), NY Giant RBs (@HOU, good luck figuring out the rotation), Tony Pollard (vs. CLE), and Alvin Kamara (vs. PIT).
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown,and CeeDee Lamb; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Six Rides this week, all ranked inside the weekly Top-20: Christian Watson AND Matthew Golden (@DET, second most FPPG allowed to the position), Malik Nabers (@HOU, and while I’m a little worried about J.J., and what he did to the other J.J. last season, Nabers is a target monster and the Texans’ mighty pass defense has been exploited all year), Justin Jefferson (vs. IND), Nico Collins (vs. NYG), and DeVonta Smith (vs. DAL, eighth most FPPG allowed to opposing WRs). Sometimes the most obvious names are also the best plays.
Moving down to those ranked between 21 and 30 for the Week — I like these guys as WR2/WR3 or Flex plays: A.J. Brown (@CHI) for redemption after last week, in a nationally televised game, and three rookies: Carnell Tate (vs. CLE), Denzel Boston (@TEN) to bounce back off a one catch game, and Germie Bernard (@NO) to stay hot.
Sleepers:
WRs ranked outside the Top-30 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include Tre Tucker (@LAR, and he hit for me as a sleeper last week), Omar Cooper, Jr. (vs. MIA), Malik Washington (@NYJ), DeMario Douglas (@CHI), and Jaylin Noel (vs. NYG). And if Jaylen Waddle is out, I think you can fire up Courtland Sutton (@ARI).
Fades:
I think Garrett Wilson (vs. MIA) is fine to start this week, but teams just don’t need to throw a lot against the Dolphins, who – surprise, surprise, are allowing the second fewest FPPG to opposing wideouts. They’ve only yielded two TDs to the position, which is second best in the NFL. This should be a low scoring affair (Vegas total is 39.5). Put it all together and Wilson’s ceiling is lower than usual.
Rome Odunze (vs. NE) is a tough clock in good matchups, and this isn’t a good matchup as he might see a lot of Christian Gonzalez.
Jaylen Waddle (@ARI) is due for a good game in a favorable matchup like this and is a contrarian call I was considering, but he’s on the injury report with something that sounds like it could limit him if he manages to play. With the late start time on Sunday, I’d be careful.
Josh Downs (@MIN) just isn’t happening. He isn’t the first WR to lose a lot of targets to Keenan Allen – it feels like this happens to one receiver room every season while Allen keeps on truckin’ with different teams. Downs is a sit for me and especially in a bad matchup like this one.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 and/or who should be starting options this season and who I’m lower than consensus on this week include George Pickens (@PHI), Michael Wilson (vs. DEN), Emeka Egbuka (@CAR), and all of the San Francisco WRs (@ATL – I’m sure one will be productive, but good luck guessing).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, George Kittle, and Isaiah Likely; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Sam LaPorta (vs. GB) has been reliably productive, and as I’ve said, a shootout here is likely. Click him as you normally would.
Can Colston Loveland (vs. NE) be trusted? Maybe not fully, but last week’s breakout was long overdue, and I can see him being busy while the wideouts struggle some against New England’s secondary.
A couple of guys who should see a lot of volume this week, in good matchups: Dallas Goedert (vs. DAL, and he’s seen 17 targets in two games since returning from a knee injury) and Tyler Higbee (@LV, who allows the fifth most FPPG to opposing tight ends, and the Rams are without Davante Adams).
I think Juwan Johnson (vs. PIT) will rebound from last week’s uncharacteristic goose egg. If you’re in one of those leagues that requires managers to shotgun a beer for each zero in a lineup, Juwan plus Cam Skattebo was a tough tandem (and almost a guaranteed loss).
Sleepers:
Mark Andrews (vs. CIN) has been highly disappointing so far this season, but I have a sneaking suspicion he’ll be heard from this week, assuming Lamar Jackson is back. In 15 career games against Cincinnati, Andrews has a 68-789-8 stat line. The Bengals were historically bad against tight ends last season, and while they’ve improved, they’re still allowing one of the highest volumes of catches and yards to the position.
A.J. Barner (vs. KC) is an afterthought at this point but could be worth considering if you’re truly stuck. The Chiefs are defending every position really well, except tight end (third most FPPG allowed).
Others to consider if you’re in need: Colby Parkinson (@LAR) and (gulp) Evan Engram (@ARI).
Fades:
Harold Fannin, Jr. (@TEN) is a Fade for me this week. He’s not doing a whole lot lately (two catches for 13 yards the last two weeks, and the emergence of the two rookie receivers is definitely a factor), and the Titans are a tough matchup. No tight end has topped 35 yards on them all season, and only Seattle allows fewer yards to the position.
Jake Ferguson (@PHI) has all but vanished from the Dallas offense, which itself has kind of disappeared the last two weeks against Tampa and Green Bay. It doesn’t get much easier on the road at Philadelphia. Ferguson is yet another “TD or bust” option at tight end, much like Pat Freiermuth (@NO). Those players won’t help you at all when they don’t score.
That’s all I’ve got this week. Good luck in Week 7!
***This column appears each Thursday here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants. ***