Arch Manning’s Struggles Are Becoming Impossible for Texas to Ignore

On fourth-and-6 from the Texas 29-yard line, the Longhorns finally got the big play they had been searching for from quarterback Arch Manning.

With the Florida pass rush threatening to chomp down on him, the elusive Manning avoided a sack, maneuvered through a muddy pocket and delivered a strike downfield to Emmett Mosley V for 62 yards. Two plays later, he found Cam Coleman for a touchdown to cut the Gators’ lead to 27–24 with over four minutes left in the fourth quarter.

As was the case in Texas’s statement September win against Ohio State, Manning began to play loose in the fourth quarter, after an uninspiring start to the game in which it looked like he was prioritizing safe throws to the true detriment of the offense. Midway through the fourth quarter, Manning had 97 passing yards, but an incredible -5 air yards, and an average depth of target of fewer than five yards. This all against a defense that ranked 131st nationally in passing defense entering Saturday.

The pass to Mosley was a tantalizing flash of the young Manning’s natural ability. What happened before and after, a sobering reminder of how far he has to come as a quarterback, raising natural questions about whether he will get there in Austin.

After forcing a Florida punt, Manning and the Longhorns offense got the ball back with 2:27 remaining near midfield, plenty of time for a game-tying or winning drive. And on the second play of the drive, Jon Sumrall’s defense brought a delayed blitz. This time, Manning could not negotiate the chaos and was swallowed up by Myles Graham, who forced a fumble that was recovered by teammate Kanye Clark.

In the box score, Manning’s day looked unremarkable but far from disastrous—14 of 20 for 173 yards and a touchdown. The film, however, tells a different story, especially in contrast to the quarterback on the opposite sideline.

Sophomore Tramell Jones Jr. made his first career start in relief of the injury Aaron Philo in front of a raucous Darrell K. Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium crowd and against Will Muschamp’s elite defense, and played with remarkable poise for a young QB with 64 career pass attempts entering the day.

Jones was held to 155 yards on 22-of-35 passing—just 4.4 yards per attempt—but still finished with more air yards than Manning, and provided a ground threat to complement star running back Jadan Baugh, who grinded out 91 yards and a score on 25 carries. Jones ran for 52 yards on nine attempts (not counting sacks)—none bigger than a nine-yard carry for a first down to effectively end the game on the final drive.

Manning was that type of player earlier in his career, and finished last season with 399 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. On Saturday, he had 28 rushing yards, all negated in the box score by sacks, and on the season has 102 yards without a score. 

It isn’t all Manning’s fault. Texas invested heavily in its running game this offseason, but so far it hasn’t paid off, even with the high-profile transfer additions of Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown in the backfield. The duo was effective early on Saturday, combining for 99 yards on 20 carries, but the passing game could not take advantage. In the second half, the Gators held the two running backs to -1 yard on four carries. 

The offensive line, which features projected NFL talents like Trevor Goosby, allowed five sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Manning has now been sacked 17 times in six games.

Given Florida’s defensive struggles entering the game—with 83 points allowed in back-to-back losses to Missouri and South Carolina—Saturday’s home game looked like a quintessential get-right game for Manning and the Longhorns offense after a tough Red River loss a week ago. Instead, more questions will swirl—about just how good Manning, whose career began with almost incalculable hype, truly is; and about Steve Sarkisian’s ability to lead this Texas program to the promised land and whether he should look to give up play-calling. 

Now the Longhorns are up against the wall with two losses by mid-October with a date against Ole Miss next week. Assuming the expansion-thirsty powers that be don’t find a way to get to a 24-team playoff immediately, Texas could be facing down a second missed CFP during a stretch in which the program expected to reestablish itself as a true title contender, with a scion from the nation’s most famous quarterbacking family under center.

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