The Oklahoma State Cowboys are playing their first Top 25 matchups as a Top 25 team since 2024, and it means a lot in the context of the Big 12 race.
The No. 18 Cowboys (4-1, 2-0) are off to a great start and a win over the No. 20 Houston Cougars (5-1, 2-1) would keep them undefeated in league play with six games remaining in the slate. It may seem like it’s early to talk about postseason positioning. But the Cougars have a Big 12 loss and really can’t afford another.
Oklahoma State has emerged as one of the surprise teams this season. If the Cowboys want to keep that rolling, they’re going to have to play a great game.
Here are four bold predictions — including a score prediction — for Saturday’s game between the Cowboys and the Cougars
Oklahoma State Will Rush for More Than 125 Yards
That doesn’t sound that bold until you see what Houston has done defending the run this year. The Cougars have the No. 4 run defense in the country as they allow just 74 yards per game. Plus, there is this nugget from Houston’s game notes:
The Cougars have outgained each of their first six opponents on the ground and have held four opponents under 100 rushing yards. Houston has outgained its opponents 1380-444.
That’s incredible. But the Cowboys have a good chance to better that season average for a couple of reasons. First, the run game averages 199 yards per game. Even if Caleb Hawkins and company have an off night, they should be able to rush for more than 74 yards. Second, the Cougars expect to be without nose tackle De’Marion Thomas, who is one of their best tackles in run defense.
Texas Tech rushed for 168 yards and Kansas State rushed for 117 yards Those are the two teams that gained more than 100 yards on the ground against Houston’s defense. Clearing 125 yards as a team seems bold given how good the Cougars’ run defense has been.
The Quarterbacks Gain 650 Yards of Combined Total Offense
The winner of this game will have the better quarterback — and both these quarterbacks are playing well right now.
Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker has emerged as a first-round NFL draft prospect thanks to his incredible play the last month. He leads the Big 12 Conference with 315 passing yards per game and has 1,575 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.
Houston’s Conner Weigman is much more likely to be used in designed runs, especially close to the end zone. But his ability to run gives the Cougars the chance to use plenty of misdirection with the defense.
Weigman has thrown for 1,428 yards, 15 touchdowns and one interception while he’s rushed for 177 yards and six scores.
This has the potential to be a high-scoring game with both quarterbacks putting up some eye-popping numbers.
Oklahoma State Will Force Two Turnovers
The Cowboys forced two turnovers in a game for the first time this season when they beat UCF, 42-28, last weekend. I’ll be bold and say the group will do it for the second straight week.
Houston has done a good job of ball possession so far this season and owns a turnover margin that is the Top 40 in the country. The Cougars possess the ball well and don’t take unnecessary risks. Running the football helps avoid those mistakes, too.
Once teams start generating turnovers defensively it can become a momentum thing. That’s what I would bet on here. Oklahoma State only forced two turnovers in the first three games of the season and have now forced three in the last two. When the Cowboys win the turnover battle, they are 2-0 and when they’re even with the opponent in turnovers, they are 1-0.
If we want to get bold, then let’s get bold. Defensive tackle Jerry Lawson forces a fumble and linebacker Ethan Wesloski intercepts a pass intended for Houston tight end Patrick Overmyer.
Score Prediction
Oklahoma State 39, Houston 36
Yes, it's going to be a high-scoring game. Both quarterbacks are going to play at a high level, and both defenses are going to make some big plays. But, with just a few seconds remaining Oklahoma State kicker Sam Keltner is going to break a tie with a field goal and send the Cowboys to their fifth straight victory of the season.
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